Roundup: Chow chooses blackmail

Toronto mayor Olivia Chow woke up and chose violence, as the kids say, when it comes to her budget proposals for Toronto. While the 10.5 percent property tax increase is long-overdue for a city whose property taxes remain well below the national average after years of austerity governments who have allowed the city to crumble so they can keep from increasing said property taxes (and this is not unique to Toronto either), she is also calling for an additional measure—federal blackmail. The proposal is called a “federal impacts levy,” or an additional six percent increase ostensibly to cover the costs of providing services for asylum seekers, and is basically holding the federal government at knifepoint, saying pay up or all your safe seats in this city are going to be in jeopardy.

The asylum seeker issue is rife with other levels of government falsely claiming that this is solely a federal responsibility, so they should foot the whole cost. It’s not actually true—the federal government is responsible for refugees once their claims have been approved, but before that point, they generally fall under the social services provided by provinces and municipalities, and the federal government will reimburse a portion of those costs. Of course, premiers like to wash their hands of this because of course they do (and there is a constant rhetorical battle happening in Question Period where the Bloc keep demanding that the federal government owes Quebec some $450 million for the provision of services, again falsely claiming sole federal responsibility), which leaves cities often bearing the burden, and Toronto and Montreal most especially as they get the lion’s share of asylum claimants. There remain questions around Toronto, if they have followed the proper channels to request federal funds for this (I believe there is a need for a certain provincial action to accompany it which may not have been undertaken), but again, they have been given millions of dollars this year for assistance with this.

My bigger concern is the Pandora’s Box that this kind of federal blackmail opens up. While some pundits will declare it to be genius, and on a strategic level, it is a clever way to back the federal government into a corner, but at the same time, this invites other cities or provinces to start adopting this kind of tactic, and even more to the point, it once again leaves the province—whose constitutional responsibility the city is—off the hook for their own underfunding and downloading of services to try and make their own bottom lines look good. We already have provinces who think they can just declare themselves exempt from federal laws, and others who are openly breaking those laws (or at least threatening to under the cover of legal fictions), while the pundit class says it’s the prime minister’s fault, that he made them break the law and behave this way. Chow is now pushing this envelope even further, and I worry about the long-term consequences for this country so that she can solve her short-term problem of being an adult around her city’s fiscal crisis.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Two Russian missiles struck a hotel in Kharkiv, injuring eleven people, many of them journalists. Ukrainian forces have been shifting toward building fortifications and a more defensive posture in recent months. Speaking in Vilnius, Lithuania, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they have shown that Russia can be stopped, but that Ukraine still needs more air defence systems and ammunition. Zelenskyy added that there are “clear signs” of a slowdown in Russia’s defence industry as he called on allied nations to tighten sanctions.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1745019147065721141

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1745348642100109636

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Roundup: Not a free press issue, but a trap

Because everything is stupid, we are being drawn into a dumb fight that is trying to de-legitimise legacy media, and legacy media is once again walking into the trap. To wit: On Tuesday, a Rebel “News” personality accosted Chrystia Freeland on the sidewalk outside of the PS752 memorial, and in the end was detained by police for an altercation. We can’t see exactly what happened because as soon as he was intercepted by the protective detail, his camera conveniently panned away, and returned to him as the police were arresting him for assaulting an officer. (He was later released without charge). There are legitimate questions if the police overreacted, and again, we can’t see what he did to them when the camera panned away, but this is not a free press issue.

To be clear: He is not a journalist. Ezra Levant and Rebel “News” keep testifying under oath in court that they are not journalists and not a news organization. And this particular performer, David Menzies, does this a lot—accost people, get arrested, and then Levant puts out a fundraising plea to their viewers, who dutifully shell out. This stunt was practiced, and the camera work seems to indicate just that. They’re already fundraising and claiming they’re going to sue Freeland and the police, because that’s their grift. And because everything is stupid and awful, Pierre Poilievre has decided to step in and claim that this is a freedom of the press issue.

Bullshit.

This isn’t about freedom of the press because Menzies is not a journalist, and Rebel is not a news outlet—by their own admission. But they pretend to be, and Poilievre is happy to go along with that fiction because this way he can try to de-legitimise reputable media outlets by saying that they are on the take from Justin Trudeau, and therefore suspect. It’s not really true, but Poilievre and his caucus have been engaged in this dystopian world-building to paint the picture that Trudeau is a despotic tyrant stripping away their freedoms who is telling the media what to write, and if they don’t, he censors and now arrests them (all of which is an absurd fabrication). And of course, Poilievre is data-mining and fundraising off of this, because again, he wants to get in on the grift.

He doesn’t care about the free press. He abuses legitimate journalists on the regular, and I have been at the receiving end of that. There was no concern about Menzies’ freedoms when he was arrested at previous Conservative events, having accosted both Melissa Lantsman and Andrew Scheer. But by trying to call out the Parliamentary Press Gallery for not condemning Menzies’ detention, and a bunch of mainstream outlets cluelessly not getting that this is grift and playing along, treating Rebel and Menzies as though they were legitimate, is doing the work of letting Poilievre de-legitimise them. It feeds his dystopian narrative, and creates the bifurcated reality where facts no longer apply. And this has the potential to get worse as Marilyn Gladu is trying to get the Commons’ heritage committee to take this up, meaning a full-on dog and pony show for the cameras that legitimate media won’t know how to handle themselves in, because they refuse to believe that they are the targets in this all-out offensive. This is actively damaging democracy, and by not being self-aware, legacy media are causing themselves more harm. This can’t end well.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The massive air assault Russia has launched against Ukraine is stretching their air defences, and they need more systems and ammunition, particularly of anti-aircraft guided missiles, some of which is being held up by the fighting in the US Congress. More than a thousand towns and villages have lost power because of winter storms affecting power systems that have been weakened by Russia’s assaults. Drone manufacturers in Ukraine are producing them faster than the country’s current budget can buy them.

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Roundup: Some interesting bits from the jobs data

The December job numbers were released yesterday by StatsCan, and they’re a little funny in that they show that a mere net 100 jobs were created, but that’s really just statistical noise, given the margin of error. And while a bit of hay was made over that, there were a couple of interesting things to delve into in the data.

One of those is that wages continue to be up—way up. Average hourly wages for permanent employees was up 5.7% year-over-year, which is a little crazy when inflation is running around three percent. While high wage growth in the short term can be good to help restore lost purchasing power after last year’s bout of high inflation, if it carries on for too long, it runs the danger of being part of the inflation problem, because prices will need to rise to pay for those salaries, which becomes more inflation, and can turn into a wage-price spiral. (That’s why governments have historically imposed wage and price controls, to try and ensure that they remain on an even playing field to stabilise prices). Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says that if wages keep rising above four percent, that is going to be a problem for taming inflation so that rates can come down.

The other noteworthy issue is that gig work—things like Uber drivers or food delivery services—continues to grow, rising 46 percent over 2023, and that new Canadians are overrepresented in that labour pool. That should also be concerning considering how exploitative those industries can be, and shows that businesses are relying on this immigrant labour to drive down wages, and devalue the labour of those workers.

Ukraine Dispatch:

While continuing to shoot down as many Russian missiles (made in North Korea) and drones as possible, Ukraine is continuing its drone strikes on military targets in occupied Crimea and the Russia’s southern Krasnodar region, in a bid to unsettle the population in advance of the country’s election.

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Roundup: Legal fictions around the carbon levy refusal

While we all emerge from our holiday slumber, the big story domestically remains that Saskatchewan is planning to move ahead with their plans to stop collecting the carbon levy on heat, and hoping that they won’t suffer any repercussions for it. This includes trying to put forward some legal fictions like trying to register the Government of Saskatchewan that’s the seller of natural gas and electricity rather than Crown corporations like SaskEnergy, which the federal government would be well within their rights to reject outright because it’s a fig leaf attempting to protect those Crown corps for breaking federal law. And to add to that, the provincial minister has been spinning the falsehood that the federal “pause” on heating oil won’t reduce the rebate, and that the rebates in his province should be secure if they stop collecting the levy, which is also false–the rebates will be reduced because that money comes from collecting the carbon price—it’s not a federal entitlement programme out of general revenue.

Here’s University of Alberta’s Andrew Leach with more:

In case you missed it:

  • My Xtra story on the Ontario court decision that ruled that calling queer people and drag queens “groomers” is a slur and is not protected speech.
  • My weekend column on an NDP private member’s bill initiative on a Middle East peace plan that looks like a Kickstarter, but is promising things it cannot deliver.
  • My column on the complete lack of serious responses in any of the Conservatives’ year-ender interviews (and the ongoing attempts to justify their Ukraine votes).
  • My year-ender column traces how the shift and fragmentation of social media turned the our politics into an even more toxic snake pit than ever.
  • My latest column on Poilievre’s “debt bomb” disinformation documentary and why it’s just hysteria to rile up the Boomers and Gen-Xers.
  • My Loonie Politics Quick Take on the way the housing issue is going to dominate the political scene for the foreseeable part of 2024.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Kyiv and Kharkiv have come under heavy bombardment in the past several days, in particular striking apartment buildings. There have been Ukrainian drone strikes in the Russian province of Belgorod.

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Roundup: The inflation and population figures

There were a couple of important figures released from StatsCan yesterday, and the first was the November inflation numbers. While some analysts were predicting it to fall, it held at 3.1% for a second month, showing that this is the part where it’s starting to get sticky, and why the Bank can’t let up measures and start reducing interest rates just yet. One of the upsides is that food price inflation continues to come down, which means that prices are stabilising, so that’s very good news (and it has nothing to do with carbon prices). And don’t forget to check out this thread from Trevor Tombe, as he digs into the numbers.

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1737111583002923039

The other figures released were the population figures, and it was the fastest growth of any quarter since 1957. The thing to keep an eye on here is that a lot of this seems to be driven by non-permanent residents, whether international students (and the big problem there are a couple of colleges in Ontario turning themselves into abusive degree mills), and other temporary foreign workers, some of whom may have been hired in an abusive way. Some of this are also asylum seekers who have not yet received status (because “closing” Roxham Road didn’t really do much for this situation other than push it underground).

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737106801617703236

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737109349477310976

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737112568286855177

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737136794938884329

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia launched an air attack on Kyiv for the fifth time this month, but this attack was intercepted and no damage was reported. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine is boosting its domestic production capacity and will produce one million drones next year. Zelenskyy is also dismissing talk that there is a rift between him and the head of the army. Here’s a look at the work judges are doing to keep the justice system going in a country under fire.

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Roundup: The empty threat to sit over the holidays

Yesterday began with Pierre Poilievre announcing at the start of his caucus meeting that the Conservatives would keep the government from going on their Christmas holidays—because they had allegedly ruined the Christmases of Canadians—unless the government lifts the carbon price from “farmers, First Nations, and families,” which is pretty nebulous, and would seem to mean the consumer carbon price and not the industrial one. Their method of warfare? Thousands of amendments that would force round-the-clock votes on things like their budget implementation bill or the bill to amend competition laws.

The problem is that, despite the threats that Conservatives like Melissa Lantsman are making, is that they can’t actually force the House to sit past December 15th. MPs long ago put the fixed calendar into the Standing Orders, and it would take a unanimous consent motion to change that date, which they’re not going to get. And if they think they’re going to exploit the loophole of keep voting going for days on end (which would technically be one sitting day that lasts beyond twenty-four hours), well, Poilievre is going to find his own MPs are going to start getting pretty upset with him because they have families, and constituency business to attend to, and this kind of thing gets pretty tiresome really quickly.

It’s an empty threat, and it’s the same kind of thing that happens every June, and every December without fail. The opposition parties start thumping their chests because it’s their last chance to flex their muscles and look like they’re being tough on the government, and without fail, they go home on time, if not a day or two early, because everyone is tired, cranky, and just wants to get the hell out of there. I would be incredibly surprised if the House didn’t rise for the holidays by the end of the 14th. Of course, this will be a different matter for the Senate, who will once again complain bitterly that these amendment vote-a-thons will delay their getting the bills, which will mean rushed passage, and that same song and dance will play out yet again, as it does at the end of every session.

In short, everyone needs to grow the hell up, and frankly, MPs need to go home sooner than later and think about their atrocious behaviour.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces shot down 41 out of 48 Russian drones in a major overnight attack. Russian forces pressed again on Avdiivka, with both sides each claiming they made gains. It was Armed Forces Day in Ukraine yesterday, with president Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisting they would win a fair peace “against all odds,” while his defence minister was in Washington to try and secure more aid from the Americans, who are holding it up to try and force concessions around their border. A former Ukrainian MP who was regarded as a traitor was shot dead outside of Moscow, and sources say that Ukraine’s security service was responsible.

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Roundup: Scott Moe takes another illegal step

Not satisfied with his plan to break federal laws in not remitting the carbon levy for natural gas, Scott Moe decided that he was going to ramp it up by also not collecting it for electric heating, which is going to be a neat trick when it comes to trying to disaggregating it from regular electricity use. He says they’re going to find out how many homes us it and reduce the levy collection by a formula that approximates what it might be, but it’s still ridiculous and is just more of this very bad trend of premiers who think that they can just get away with violating federal law if they feel like it. But it’s not him that’ll be exposed by this—it’s the CEO and board of SaskPower, just like with SaskEnergy, and they’re the ones exposed to criminal liability for breaking federal law, not Moe, and that should be of concern to anyone in these positions.

Of course, it bears repeating that it’s not the carbon price driving up these costs, really—it’s the utility provider. But that won’t stop Moe and the federal Conservatives from lying about the size and effect of carbon prices as a distraction (or legacy media from not calling it out).

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles struck three towns in Eastern Ukraine—Pokrovsk, Novohrodivka, and Myronhrad, killing two and wounding ten. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited troops on the northeast frontlines, and called for the faster construction of fortifications in key areas under threat from Russian forces.

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QP: Self-contradicting economic demands

The prime minister was off in Toronto making housing announcements, and his deputy was on the West Coast for her own announcement. Most of the other leaders were also absent, but not Pierre Poilievre. He led off in French, as he so often does, and he accused the prime minister of replacing the joy of Christmas with poverty, according to Operation Santa Claus letters, and he blamed deficit spending. Anita Anand praised the Canada Child Benefit for lifting families out of poverty, and encouraged the Conservatives to vote for their bill to “stabilise grocery prices” (well, indirectly anyway). Poilievre then called the government hypocrites at for how much they fly, to which François-Philippe Champagne said that people can see who the real hypocrisy are because the opposition leader only opposes investment in the green economy. Poilievre switched to English to decry “stagflation” in the last quarter, blaming high deficits, taxes, and red tape, while the American economy was roaring. Anand wanted to remind everyone that they have an economic plan, and recited good news economic talking points to prove their plan was working. Poilievre returned to the accusation of hypocrisy for how much the environment minister has flown before demanding that they cut the carbon price, for which Champagne patted himself on the back for attracting foreign investment in the green economy. Poilievre then raised the court challenge from Ontario First Nations about the carbon price. Patty Hajdu noted that these nations are independent, decried the Conservatives’ colonial attitudes, and listed the investments they have made to those communities.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and demanded the federal government transfer $460 million to Quebec for asylum seekers, insisting they were solely a federal problem (which is not true—they are only federal once their claims re accepted). Don Vandal said that asylum seekers are a shared jurisdiction and they continue to converse with the province. Therrien made another demand, and this time Pablo Rodriguez says there is no fight, just that the Bloc is trying to pick one.

Jagmeet Singh appeared by video, and worried about the revelations from the US about assassination plots from India. Dominic LeBlanc said that the RCMP and policing partners across the country are taking this seriously, and cooperating with American law enforcement. Singh switch to French to repeat the concerns from Operation Santa Claus in Quebec, to which Anand plugged the bill they tabled to help build the economy.

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Roundup: Google signs a deal to avoid transparency

With days to go before the Online News Act would start applying, Google has come to an agreement that sees it pay $100 million per year into a fund, rather than to have individual deals with news outlets. This is one of the things that seems to escape most of the critics of the Act—this was about ensuring that the deals that Google and Facebook were already signing with news outlets were subject to transparency and had an arbitrator—the CRTC—at the ready in the case of disputes. This was never a “link tax” or some such nonsense, it was about putting structure into the same deals that were already being made, and it was the transparency that they objected to. This deal ensures that they are not subjected to that transparency, because it’s one lump sum, which is the real takeaway from this deal.

Of course, none of this fixes the underlying problem with is the domination of the ad tech space where Google and Facebook control all aspects of it and are siphoning money at each stage, which is why they have starved news outlets of advertising revenues. Of course, nobody wants to talk about that aspect. To deal with this, there still needs to be stronger anti-trust action, particularly in the US, but this deal is a start, nevertheless.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians claimed that they launched missiles from their Black Sea fleet against “military targets,” but nothing has been verified. Ukraine’s foreign minister says that the EU has delivered about 300,000 of its promised munitions shells so far.

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QP: Starting the Christmas brawling in November

The prime minister was present while his deputy wasn’t, as news was breaking both about an indictment around Indian-sponsored assassination plots and a deal from Google on online news. Most of the other leaders were present, but there was also the promise that the one who wasn’t physically present was there virtually. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, claiming that the prime minister was ashamed of his fiscal record and launched into a rant about debt-servicing charges. Justin Trudeau responded by pointing out that the Conservatives opposed their health funding agreement with the provinces and would prefer austerity to the “responsible” record of the government. Poilievre trotted out his line about people already experiencing austerity and blamed government deficits. Trudeau said that Poilievre’s logic was faulty, as government austerity would not help those people. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, and returned to misquoting that Scotiabank report before demanding that he “get control of his spending,” to which Trudeau said that the media didn’t cover the fall economic update much as they would have liked because they were too busy covering Poilievre’s terrible week. Poilievre suggested he give the media even more money to cover what he likes, before he recited lines about carbon pricing, to which Trudeau patted himself on the back for the deal with Google to help fund local journalism. Poilievre then moved to a juvenile “debate me!” cries, before demanding the carbon price be axed. Trudeau said that farmers are seeing the impacts of climate change, which is glaringly obvious to every except for certain MAGA Conservatives.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he demanded a call for tenders for surveillance aircraft that included Bombardier’s vapourware. Trudeau said that they were concerned that the armed forces gets what they need while keeping the aerospace sector in Quebec strong, and that minsters would making decisions in due course. Blanchet tried to insist this was some kind of slight against Quebec, but Trudeau reiterated his same response.

Jagmeet Singh appeared by video, and in English, he demanded to know where the online harms bill was after a sextortion case wound up in a suicide. Trudeau said that they all want to protect kids, and were moving forward in the right way, and that they need to ensure that they get this legislation right. Singh demanded action, before switching to French to decry that the president of COP28 was trying to make oil deals in Canada, but Trudeau kept going on about the forthcoming online harms bill, and said it was inappropriate to make accusations about actions or inactions.

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