Tag Archives: Refugees

Roundup: The Budget 2023 highlight reel

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And with that, Budget 2023 is now out in the wild. It’s much more pessimistic than the fall economic update was, reflecting the softening global economy—even before the current spate of bank problems happening in the US and Europe. And because GDP growth is projected to be virtually non-existent next year, while spending is increasing, it does mean the debt-to-GDP ratio is going to climb a tiny bit higher than projected earlier, causing no end of grief to a certain class of economic watcher.

The common refrain I heard from the television panellists in reaction was that the budget was clearly defined by its co-authors—Jagmeet Singh, and Joe Biden—each who had their demands, which wound up in the document. In terms of what’s in the budget, here’s an overview, while the highlights include:

  • Rebranding the added GST credit as a one-time “grocery rebate,” while the rental supports are ending because of low uptake.
  • Dental care is planning to be turned into a full insurance programme for the uninsured, administered through Health Canada rather than the CRA.
  • There is money to deal with countering foreign interference, money laundering, and other financial crimes.
  • There are a tonne of subsidies and tax credits geared toward the green economy, with more rewards for companies with better labour practices.
  • The wealthiest Canadians are facing an Alternative Minimum Tax increase.
  • The share buyback tax is in the budget.
  • The excise tax on alcohol is going to cap at a lower rate after a massive outcry (never mind it was adding less than 1¢ to a can of beer).
  • There is more money for consultations on Indigenous resource sharing.
  • They are promising a federal spending review and cutting back on consultants and travel (but we’ll see if that sticks).
  • More money to keep the Phoenix pay system stable while they work on a replacement.
  • There will be a $2.4 billion loan for Ukraine, on top of another $200 million for military equipment (most of which has been announced).
  • Here are sixteen points that are prominent, and that are a little more hidden in the text.

Surprising absolutely nobody, Jagmeet Singh says he’ll support the budget, while Pierre Poilievre put on a big song and dance in the Foyer before Question Period saying that unless the government met his demands, he wouldn’t support it—not that he would support it anyway, so it was the dumbest, hollowest threat imaginable. Honestly. Meanwhile, here is some reaction from business leaders to the document.

https://twitter.com/Dennismolin11/status/1640822353461489664

Ukraine Dispatch:

In spite of the relentless bombardment of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces say the Russians have made no advancement on either position (even if the Russians insist they are). The first of the British Challenger 2 tanks have begun arriving on Ukrainian soil, as have Leopard 2 tanks from Germany, while France is pledging more ammunition. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the Sumy region, which was retaken from Russian forces in early April of last year.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1640785827210067968

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1640759675699298316

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QP: Launching a new, unconstitutional talking point

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It was a surprise that the prime minister was present when he wasn’t initially planning to be, though most of the other leaders weren’t. Pierre Poilievre led in French, demanding to know if the debt-to-GDP ratio would fall in the coming budget. Justin Trudeau responded that he knew everyone was on tenterhooks waiting to hear what is in the budget, but reiterated what their priorities are. Poilievre changed to English, listed the number of violent deaths in the past few days and demanded the prime ministers reverse the policies that made this happen. Trudeau said that while they are concerned, they have invested in public safety while the Conservatives cut funding to them. Poilievre insisted that in Vancouver, 40 repeat offenders were arrested 6000 times in a year, and demanded the prime minster “replace bail with jail.” (That is contrary to the Charter of Rights and Freedoms). Trudeau said that if the Conservatives were concerned, they would support their gun control bill. Poilievre insisted that the government was letting violent criminals go free, and Trudeau accused the Conservatives of distracting away from their opposition to gun control bill. Poilievre made a number of specious correlations, pretended there was causation, called it “evidence,” and Trudeau said that the Conservatives loosened gun control which caused the spike in violent crime. (Erm, not sure that’s true either).

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, raised the allegations against Han Dong, and accused the government of being asleep at the switch. Trudeau cautioned Therrien of being sure of his facts so that he doesn’t mislead the House, and stated that the government took actions where necessary. Therrien wondered if Trudeau was naïve or incompetent and demanded an immediate public inquiry. Trudeau said this was just the Bloc trying to score points rather than getting to the bottom of things, which is why we should count on David Johnston.

Heather McPherson rose for the NDP, and noted that Ukrainians in Canada on visitor visas can access training programmes, to which Trudeau noted that he did sit down with union leaders, gave some bland statements about supporting Ukrainians while growing the economy. Lisa Marie Barron worried about seniors who can’t make ends meet, and that single seniors pay more in taxes than their coupled counterparts, and Trudeau insisted that they did increased the GIS for single seniors, which the NDP voted against.

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Roundup: Another Auditor General Day goes by largely unnoticed

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Yesterday was Auditor General day, not that you really heard much about it. No questions were raised about her reports in Question Period, and none of it came up on either of the politics shows, which is not good. We’ve already ceded so much of Parliament’s ability to hold the government to account to Officers of Parliament like the Auditor General, but whereas once upon a time, the biannual Auditor General Days were all anyone could talk about because media in Ottawa worshipped at the feet of said Auditors General, and who took their word as gospel, well, there has been almost none of that now. (And frankly, the fact that we are now listening to every single utterance of the Parliamentary Budget Officer and not the Auditor General is another problem).  In fact, most outlets ran Canadian Press wire copy instead of doing their own reporting from the reports, and those outlets that did their own stories only focused on a one or two of the reports and not all four, which again, is a warning sign about the state of our media.

Nevertheless, her reports concluded that:

  • The slow rollout of high-speed internet to rural and First Nations communities in particular is creating an economic divide.
  • The government can’t track the outcomes of their “feminist foreign policy” because they’re not tracking if aid dollars are actually meeting goals.
  • Two-thirds of people with disabilities found barriers to accessing federally-regulated planes and passenger trains.
  • The Centre Block renovations are on budget so far, but it’s taking far too long to make any decisions related to the work.

So really, there’s some pretty heavy stuff in there that the government should be held to account for, most especially the part around foreign aid funding that they like to show up at an announcement for and pat themselves on the back later, but are neglecting tracking the actual work. That’s a problem with this government, and we should be holding their feet to the fire over it, but we’re just not, and that’s a problem for our democracy.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces closed the town of Avdiivka to civilians in the wake of increasing attacks as Russian forces shift their attention there and away from their flagging assault on Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces also shot down a dozen Russian drones headed for Kyiv, destroying all of them. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited troops in the south-eastern part of the country, where it’s likely part of the spring counter-offensive will take place. Zelenskyy later met with the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and said that Russians were holding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant hostage.

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QP: Harvesting clips demanding no new taxes

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In between Biden’s visit and tomorrow’s budget, the prime minister was present for a somewhat rare Monday appearance, not not every other leader was. Pierre Poilievre led of in French, and he decried a supposed “war on work” that punishes people with taxes, which is a risible talking point. Justin Trudeau had a script in front of him as he noted how many hundreds of thousand of children they lifted out of poverty thanks to the Child Benefit, plus their child care and dental care programmes that the Conservatives voted against. Poilievre repeated it in English, and got largely the same response from Trudeau, this time without script, and with added mentions of clean energy jobs and the Canada Worker Benefit. Poilievre insisted that the  government was constantly raising taxes—factually wrong—and demanded no new taxes in the new budget. Trudeau pointed out they lowered small business taxes and created more supports for workers and families that delivered growth, taking a shot at trickle down economics. Poilievre insisted that Trudeau was the only one believing in trickle down as he scoops up all the money, insisted that he was right about deficits causing inflation (he’s not), and again demanded no new taxes. Trudeau insisted that they were “laser-focused” on growing the economy for Canadians. Poilievre segued this to doubling housing prices and demanded “serious penalties” in the budget for “gatekeepers,” to which Trudeau recited housing measures the government was taking.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he demanded a public inquiry for allegations of foreign interference. Trudeau, with a script, read that they have tasked the “unimpeachable” David Johnston with determining next steps while NSICOP and NSIRA conducted their own investigations. Therrien then took swipes at Jean Chrétien’s comments that he wasn’t concerned about the problem, and Trudeau insisted that this was the Bloc trying to make partisan attacks over a serious issue.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he cited a CBC article that says that millennials are at higher rates of insolvency and demanded measures to help youth in the budget. Trudeau, again with a script, listed measures they are taking for housing. Singh switched to French to ask if the government was putting a “grocery rebate” in the budget as reported, and Trudeau told him to wait for tomorrow like everyone else.

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Roundup: Strange Five Eyes anxieties

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Every now and again, a weird little subplot turns up in Canadian politics centred around anxiety about our place in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance. Lately, this has been heightened because of the AUKUS agreement, which is mostly about Australia buying American nuclear submarines, and that’s the reason why Canada wasn’t invited to join. We as a country have not been having the necessary dialogue around replacing our submarine fleet (which we absolutely should be), so us joining AUKUS would be particularly ill-timed.

Nevertheless, this bit of anxiety crept up again over the weekend, whereby an American intelligence official needed to go on television in Canada to assure us that no, the leaks from national security personnel to media over allegations of foreign interference are not going to jeopardise our Five Eyes membership. But cripes, people—we have had far worse leaks in recent memory, be it Jeffrey Delisle, who was sending information to the Russians, or the allegations surrounding senior RMCP intelligence official Cameron Ortis (who is still awaiting trial). Are these leaks to the media damaging? Yes, of course, particularly because they seem very much to have a partisan focus to them. Is it going to get us kicked out of the Five Eyes? Hardly.

Ukraine Dispatch:

As Russian forces pound the town of Avdiivka, shifting away from Bakhmut, Ukrainian leadership is calling for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council after Russia said it would be transferring tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1639971295113670656

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Roundup: Evading a direct question with fiery rhetoric

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Yesterday’s press conference with the prime minister and US president was the first opportunity to ask Justin Trudeau about the allegations made against MP Han Dong, and whether he believed them. Trudeau said that he accepts that Dong left caucus to fight the allegations, prompted people to watch Dong’s speech in the House of Commons, and then went on a tear about how any foreign interference was unnecessary, and it was why the G7 meeting at Charlevoix set up the Rapid Response Mechanism to deal with it in elections. And it sounded like the kind of answer he should have been giving three weeks ago when he was simply flailing, until you stopped to realise that he didn’t actually answer the question, but sidestepped it with the rhetoric. So that’s a choice.

Meanwhile, here is an interesting deep dive thread into what the Globe and Mail published on Thursday night, and the subtle shade they were throwing at Global about the decision not to print allegations they could not confirm without seeing the transcript of the alleged call or listen to audio. I still think it’s interesting that this seems to confirm that the same source appears to be shopping leaks to both outlets.

Stephanie Carvin answers some questions about the kinds of warrants that could be in play as it appears that CSIS was monitoring the calls of the Chinese consulate.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1639255538021339136

Former national security analyst Dennis Molinaro gives a good gut-check about the kinds of intelligence we’re dealing with, and why none of it can be taken as conclusive, particularly as much of it is time and context specific, which may be why it wasn’t acted upon at the time.

https://twitter.com/dennismolin11/status/1639402944708632576

And finally, while some are hoping that a public inquiry might stop the leaks, I wouldn’t be so sure. The leaks are intended to cause damage, but to the government in particular, and that’s partly why they are being shopped to the journalists that they are. That they are causing damage to the intelligence service and institutions seems to be considered collateral damage, particularly if the op-ed from last week is indicative of a narcissistic personality who thinks they know better.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces attacked stretches along the northern and southern fronts in the Donbas region, as their assault on Bakhmut has flagged. Ukrainian forces are using three Soviet-era helicopters to pummel Russian forces on the front lines from afar. Slovakia has delivered the first four of 13 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. The UN’s human rights monitors have seen cases of abuses and killing of prisoners of war on both sides of the conflict (though disproportionately more on the Russian side).

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1639257619071213568

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Roundup: No actionable intelligence?

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The Globe and Mail advanced the allegations surrounding MP Han Dong last night, apparently having received the same intelligence that Global did, and asked the PMO about it two-and-a-half weeks ago. Their sources say that PMO asked for a transcript of the conversation Dong allegedly had with the Chinese consulate, and deemed there to not be enough actionable in there. It does raise further questions about the leakers, and if they are leaking to both Global and the Globe and Mail, or if their sources remain separate.

https://twitter.com/JessMarinDavis/status/1638932464839147526

Nevertheless, both outlets’ reporting lacks crucial nuance or expert checking with former intelligence officials that can provide both context or a gut check. And the fact that a transcript was provided doesn’t entirely tell us if this conversation was in English or Mandarin, and if it was in translation that could lose context or proper nuance in the language, which are all important around how we are to evaluate the allegations. And irresponsible reporting is taking us into witch-hunt territory, which is going to get ugly really fast.

https://twitter.com/chercywong/status/1638869879351808000

Meanwhile, the House of Commons voted for a motion to launch a public inquiry immediately, but it’s non-binding, and the government is waiting on recommendations from David Johnston. It was noted that Dong voted for the motion, while Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith abstained, later explaining over Twitter that he supports an inquiry but wants to wait for Johnston’s recommendations.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces are gearing up for their spring counter-offensive as Russian forces are flagging in their assault on Bakhmut, but president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is warning European allies that unless they step up weapons shipments, the war could drag on for years. Zelenskyy visited the region around Kherson, and vowed to repair the damaged Russia had caused. Here are stories of Ukrainian fighters wounded in the fighting in Bakhmut, as they repelled Russian attacks. Seventeen children previously deported to Russia have been returned to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1638932049380745217

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Roundup: Forcing a confrontation for point-scoring alone

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The whole sorry affair over summoning Katie Telford to testify at committee is coming to a head today with the vote on the Conservatives’ Supply Day motion to bypass PROC and have her testify at the Ethics Committee (where they hold the chair). And in the meantime, the Liberals are deciding if they want to make this a confidence vote, while the NDP are deciding if they are going to go along with the Conservatives on this, or back the Liberals—particularly if this does become a confidence measure.

It’s all really stupid. While I have a longer piece on the underlying parliamentary implications around forcing staffers to testify at committee coming out later today, we can’t lose sight of why this is happening. The Conservatives knew the government would balk at forcing a staffer to testify, so they would use the reluctance to push the line that they are hiding something, and if they’re fighting this hard “it must be really bad.” Which is bad faith bullshit, but that’s the name of their game, and true to form, the Liberals walked right into it, because they flailed over the leaks in the media, and can’t communicate their way out of a wet paper bag. And the Conservatives get to jam the NDP in the process, and try to force a wedge between them and the government. None of this is about foreign interference or taking the issue seriously. This is entirely about the Conservatives smelling blood in the water and going on the attack so they can score as many points as possible, because nobody in this parliament is serious or a grown-up. This is all a gods damned game to them, and it’s destroying our Parliament in the process.

Do I think the Liberals will force a confidence vote? No, because as much as the principle of ministerial responsibility is of importance, they’re not going to risk bringing down the government over it—particularly to have an election over allegations of interference in elections without any chance to ensure there are proper safeguards before that election happens. Then again, miscalculations have happened in minority parliaments before, and sometimes games of chicken go wrong. But really, this is yet another instance of play stupid games, win stupid prizes. And this really is the stupidest game.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces are warning that the town of Avdiivka could become a “second Bakhmut,” as they have held out against assault for eight months while avoiding being encircled, but Russians are trying to cut off their supply lines. Meanwhile, Ukraine sort of claimed responsibility for destroying a shipment of cruise missiles travelling by train through occupied Crimea. Elsewhere, here is a look at the de-mining work that needs to take place in places freed from occupation before they can complete critical infrastructure repairs.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1637881139355328523

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1637750630566486016

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Roundup: Commonwealth Day reminders

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Yesterday was Commonwealth Day, and also the ten-year anniversary of the Commonwealth Charter, which was supposed to be a project to spearhead the adoption of more common human rights legislation that would include better inclusion of LGBTQ+ rights in those Commonwealth countries where they are still an issue. In those ten years, that seems to have fallen off the radar, and I have barely heard any mention of that Charter at all, until when the anniversary was mentioned yesterday.

With anything related to the Commonwealth, we were guaranteed a bunch of bad media takes, and lo, for their inaugural episode, CTV News Channel’s new debate show had one of their topics as to whether Canada should stay in the Commonwealth or abandon the monarchy, which is a dumb false dichotomy because the vast majority of Commonwealth countries are not monarchies. Only fifteen member countries are Realms, meaning that we share Charles III as our monarch in a natural capacity (we each have separate Crowns), and newer members of the Commonwealth are not former British colonies, but have requested membership because they see value in the institution. Even if we did abandon the monarchy (which isn’t going to happen because it would mean rewriting our entire constitution and good luck trying to make that happen), we would still probably retain membership in the Commonwealth because of the relationships forged there, and it can be good forum for getting things done with countries.

Meanwhile, I’m going to re-up this interview I did with MP Alexandra Mendès, who is the chair of the Canadian Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, about the work these associations do and how Canada helps to train the legislatures and parliaments of smaller Commonwealth countries.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The battle near Bakhmut continues to rage, while the International Criminal Court is expected to seek the arrest of Russian officials responsible for the policy of forcibly deporting children from Ukraine, as well as their continued targeting of civilian infrastructure.

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QP: The repetitive demands for a public inquiry

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While the prime minister was in town, he was not in QP, nor was his deputy. Most of the other leaders were absent, Pierre Poilieve was present, and he led off in French, saying that China has been trying to influence Justin Trudeau for ten years, starting with the donation to the Trudeau Foundation (which Trudeau had already stepped away from when the donation was made), and then said that Trudeau did nothing about China trying to interfere in two elections to support the Liberal Party (which is not really what the allegation was) before he demanded an independent public inquiry. Dominic LeBlanc got up and disputed that the government did nothing, when in fact Poilievre did nothing about the concerns when he was the minister in charge of democratic institutions. Poilievre switched to English to say that they didn’t do anything because the Communist Dictatorship in China wasn’t trying to help the Conservatives (that’s not an excuse for inaction), before repeating his same allegations that he made in French. LeBlanc repeated that they take any foreign interference seriously, which is why they took unprecedented steps when they formed government, including creating NSICOP, and the panel of senior public servants to monitor elections. Poilievre delivered a smear about Morris Rosenberg before insisting that the Liberals benefitted from the interference (not really) and then tried to call out the NDP for not being tougher on the government. LeBlanc said it was good news that top-level officials did already testify at committee and that he would be at committee himself on Thursday to answer questions. Poilievre noted the upcoming announcement coming later from the prime minister before suggesting that Trudeau would appoint a Liberal insider to hold a secretive process and not get to the truth, and he tried again to call out the NDP before demanding a public inquiry. LeBlanc reminded the House that Poilievre was the minister of democratic reform and he was aware of foreign interference allegations and did nothing. Poilievre went on a rant about the Liberals not being forthcoming about Chinese donations pre-2015, before demanding that the NDP force the government to allow PMO officials and Liberal Party figures appear at committee about the allegations. LeBlanc retorted that even if the leader of the opposition keeps repeating a falsehood, it doesn’t make it real, before he once again listed the measures they have taken.

Alain Therrien took over for the Bloc, and he demanded that everyone stand up for the confidence in the democratic system, and took his own turn to demand an independent public inquiry. LeBlanc agreed that it should be a non-partisan issue, and reiterated the “strong” measures that the government had taken. Therrien listed those who demanded an inquiry, and demanded it once again. LeBlanc again reiterated that they took measures, and gave more praise for NSICOP and other monitoring agencies.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and he too took a turn to demand a public inquiry, and LeBlanc recited the “unprecedented steps” that the government took to combat this problem. Alexandre Boulerice took over in French to repeat the demand and he got the same answer one more time from LeBlanc.

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