Roundup: Five sitting weeks remain

The final five weeks of the spring sitting of the House of Commons begins today, and it’s going to be raucous, and ugly, and exhausting. The government has  a tonne of bills they need to pass, starting with the implementation for the fall economic statement (no, seriously, it still hasn’t passed), pharmacare, the bill to ban replacement workers, the online harms bill, and maybe the foreign-agent registry, before we even get to the budget implementation bill. It’s a lot, and it will depend on the cooperation of the NDP (and possibly the Bloc) to come to agreements on time allocation for those bills, because the Conservatives will do everything they can to slow them up.

In the middle of this will be the Conservatives continued use of committees for dog-and-pony shows about ArriveCan, the Winnipeg Lab documents, or any other particular witch-hunts the Conservatives want to pursue, and on most of these committees, the NDP and Bloc are game to play along, because they are still keen to embarrass the government at every opportunity, whether the subject is within the remit of that committee or not. Because that’s what Parliament is these days—a content factory for social media.

The lever that the government has is the ability to call midnight sittings, and why that matters is because we have a shortage of interpreters, which means they can’t cover both the midnight sittings and all of the committee meetings, so the Conservatives will need to start making choices—do they want to talk bills to death in the House of Commons, or do they want to hold their committee dog-and-pony shows? This is what things are going to boil down to, so we’ll see how well Steve MacKinnon can wield this power.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces still control about 60 percent of the village of Vovchansk, near Kharkiv, with the fighting being describe as being house-to-house. Ukrainian forces downed all 29 Russian drones launched on Monday night, and all 37 drones launched on Sunday night. At least eleven civilians have been killed in the outskirts of Kharkiv as Russians continue their advance, shelling civilian targets along the way. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did an interview with Reuters, in which he called out the Americans in particular for being a year late with their assistance, especially around air defences.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1792157706737868830

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QP: Another slogan to “fix” the budget

While both the prime minister and his deputy were in town, they were not present for QP, though most of the other leaders were present. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and listed off his slogans before noting that the government was spending more on interest on the debt than healthcare, and demanded the government take is “dollar-for-dollar” plan to “fix the budget.” Sean Fraser wondered if it was common sense or nonsense to cut programmes to help people. Poilievre took a swipe at Fraser for his alleged incompetence around immigration numbers, which “doubled” housing prices, and demanded the government reduce the deficit and interest rates. François-Philippe Champagne recited that Poilievre only built six affordable housing units when he was “housing minister” (which he wasn’t really), and that they wouldn’t take any lessons. Poilievre switched to English to misquote a Scotiabank report claiming government deficits were adding two points to the interest rates, to which Fraser accused him of knowing the cost of everything and the value of nothing in his opposition to programmes to help people. Poilievre insisted there was no value in food programmes that don’t exist or the doubling of the cost of housing, and repeated his same misleading declaration about interest rates. Fraser needled Poilievre about the number of affordable units lost when he was “minister” and the number of houses that weren’t built. Poilievre accused Fraser of being incompetent as immigration minister before being named housing minister, and then gave some misleading nonsense about rental prices when he was “housing minister.” Fraser took a shot at the Conservatives for opposing the resettlement of Afghan refugees who had helped the Canadian Forces, and after the Speaker finally restored order, repeated the points about Poilievre’s housing record.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and complained that Quebec didn’t get their fair share of housing funds, to which Pablo Rodriguez talked about the Bloc’s lack of priorities as they keep demanding referendums while the government is investing. Therrien tried his complaint again, and Fraser insisted that they were working with the province to ensure they would get their fair share.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he railed about corporate handouts to companies like Loblaws, and wanted the government to roll back Conservative policies. Champagne thanked him for his help in reforming competition law, but said they still needed support to get the Grocery Code of Conduct passed. Singh switched to French to demand an excess profits tax on grocery giants, and Champagne repeated his response.

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Roundup: No, a foreign power can’t install a prime minister

One of the unfortunate things about certain people I follow on the Twitter Machine constantly retweeting sludge is that sometimes I see something that is so outrageous that it sets me off. This, from former Global journalist Sam Cooper, is just such an egregious thing.

Setting aside the torqued use of Michael Chong’s testimony, this has all of the credibility of those racist emails that used to circulate, usually at the hands of someone’s relatives, where people worried that the changing Canadian demographics could mean that we might *gasp!* have a Muslim prime minister! As is unsurprising in racist emails like those, the internal logic was deeply flawed and the understanding of our system was non-existent, and was likely repurposed from American racist content worrying about a Muslim president, but that aside, this worry from Cooper is about the same quality.

To wit: If a party held a leadership contest while during a prime minister’s term, the fear expressed here is that, somehow, a foreign government would be able to swamp party memberships (either sales or sign-ups, depending on the party) and install a preferred candidate, who would then become prime minister without an election (which, I should not need to remind anyone, is perfectly legitimate in a parliamentary system). The hole in this logic is that pretty much every party has a weighted point system as part of these elections, so that highly populated regions of the country don’t swamp the more sparely-populated ones. In order for a foreign government to therefore take over a leadership contest, they would need a critical mass of voters in the majority of ridings in the country, particularly ones like small rural ridings in Quebec or Atlantic Canada. That’s simply not a possibility for any foreign government to engineer. The fact that Cooper doesn’t have a clue how these things work should be (another) warning sign about his judgment. Cripes.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian drone attacks on Kharkiv struck residential buildings and cut power supplies. A Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle (larger than a drone) was used to strike deep inside Russian territory, striking an industrial site.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1775913487300002262

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QP: Is the PBO right or out of date?

In spite of the fact that they are both in town, neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present for QP today, and most of the other leaders were absent as well. Andrew Scheer led off, and after rattling off slogans, he raised the story on the cost of the prime minister’s vacation, and got increasingly breathy as he demanded an election. François-Philippe Champagne said that Scheer had become the CIO of Canada—the Chief Inaction Officer, and that he was advocating inaction on climate change and clean growth. This earned him a warning from the Speaker. Scheer then railed about people not being able to afford food and blamed the carbon levy, and again demanded an election. Gudie Hutchings got up to recount the story of a senior in her riding who tracks his expenses, and what happy that he comes out ahead with the rebates. Scheer insisted this was just false, and claimed the PBO stated otherwise, and once again demanded an election. Hutchings recounted more stories from seniors in her riding. Luc Berthold took over in French, took some swipes at the Bloc, and demanded to know what the government promised them for support. Champagne said that it was clear that the Conservatives didn’t believe in climate change while the government takes action and grows the economy. Berthold tried to call out the Bloc on the upcoming vote, and and Steven Guilbeault reminded him that they ran on climate change in the last election, and that just behind him sits a former Quebec minister who brought in Quebec’s system. 

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and decried how much the government says no to Quebec, Pablo Rodriguez listed things they said yes to, and that the Bloc only wants to start fights. Therrien listed more things the government said no to, including the abolition of the monarchy, and Rodriguez gave much the same reply.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, decried rent increases in Montreal—which is provincial jurisdiction—and wanted something for renters in the budget, Soraya Martinez Ferrada noted the investments in different types of housing, and their agreement with Quebec. Jenny Kwan appeared by video to give the same question with a BC lens, and Martinez Ferrada gave the English version of the same talking points.

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Roundup: Making up censorship claims

Facing pressure for dismissing the Online Harms bill before he had even seen it, Pierre Poilievre put out a statement yesterday that said that things like child sexual exploitation or “revenge porn” should be criminal matters, and that police should be involved and not a new “bureaucratic” agency. It’s a facile answer that betrays the lack of resources that law enforcement devotes to these matters, or the fact that when it comes to harassment or hate, many police bodies have a tendency not to believe victims, especially if they are women.

But then Poilievre went one step further, saying “We do not believe that the government should be banning opinions that contradict the Prime Minister’s radical ideology.” I’m not sure where exactly in the bill he sees anything about banning opinions, because he made that part up. More to the point, the provisions in the bill around hate speech quite literally follow the Supreme Court of Canada’s decision in Whatcott, and codifies them, which means the standard is exposing someone to “vilification or detestation” if they are a member of a group that is a prohibited grounds for discrimination. That means that it goes beyond “opinion” one doesn’t like. The minister confirmed that “awful but lawful” content will not be touched, because the standard in the bill is hate speech as defined by the Supreme Court of Canada. And it would seem to me that if the standard of “hate speech is bad” is “radical ideology” in your mind, well then, you are probably telling on yourself.

Speaking of Poilievre making things up, he spent the afternoon loudly proclaiming that the RCMP sent him a letter saying they were investigating ArriveCan. Then he posted the letter on Twitter. The letter doesn’t say they are investigating. It literally says they are assessing all available information. That is not an investigation. That’s deciding if they want to investigate. The fact that he released the letter that doesn’t say they are investigating, and says that it proves they are investigating, feels like a big test of the cognitive dissonance he expects in his followers, which is just one more reason why our democracy is in serious trouble.

Ukraine Dispatch:

As Ukrainian forces withdrew from two more villages near Avdiivka, one of which Russia has claimed the capture of, there are concerns that Russia is stepping up influence operations to scupper international support. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has landed in Saudi Arabia for meetings related to his peace plan and a push to get prisoners and deportees released from Russia. In Europe, NATO countries have been backing away from statements that French president Emmanuel Macron made about not excluding any options to avert a Russian victory in Ukraine, which were presumed to mean western troops. (Macron said this was about creating “strategic ambiguity.”)

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QP: Brandishing an RCMP letter

Neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present today, though both were back in town (if a bit jet-lagged from their travel over the weekend), while only a few other leaders were present. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and after reciting some slogans, he said that the RCMP had confirmed that they have opened an investigation into ArriveCan, and tried to tie in the Aga Khan and SNC Lavalin. Dominic LeBlanc said that they have been giving authorities all of the documents they request. Poilievre repeated the question in English, and LeBlanc repeated his same response in English. Poilievre then cited a Food Bank report, and demanded the carbon levy be lifted (which has nothing to do with food price inflation). François-Philippe Champagne deployed his usual “take no lessons” line before saying that Conservatives on the committee were defending the profit margins of food processors, and exhorted then to support Bill C-59. Poilievre tried again, and Champagne patted himself on the back for spearheading the largest reform of competition in history. Poilievre then cited the existence of a dumpster diving Facebook group and blamed it on the carbon price. Sean Fraser got up to list assistance programmes that Poilievre and the Conservatives have voted against.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he repeated yesterday’s question about federal government spending to give other provinces what Quebec already has, and wanted compensation to opt out of any national pharmacare. Mark Holland said that a bill would be coming soon, and exhorted them not to criticise a bill they haven’t seen. Therrien wanted compensation to Quebec and the ability to opt out of dental care, and Holland insisted this was just trying to pick fights rather than helping people who need it.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and he complained that people in Quebec can’t get a family do form which should be a question for François Legault. Holland said that they were cooperating with provinces, and that it takes time. Don Davies gave a non-Quebec-centric version of the same question, and Holland went on a tear about how the Conservatives would cut while the current government is investing. 

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QP: Constant questions to other opposition parties

The prime minister and his deputy were on their way back from the weekend trip to Kyiv and Poland, while most of the other leaders were away. Andrew Scheer led off in French, and he recited the list of Conservative slogans to point out that the Bloc voted in favour of funding ArriveCan. Jean-Yves Duclos stood up to thank the Auditor General for her work, and cite the most of her recommendations have been acted upon. Scheer pointed out that the Bloc voted for this eight times, which got a warning by the Speaker, to which Duclos told him that that he should ask the Bloc, but reiterated the canned line about the government doing what needed to be done in the pandemic. Scheer switched to English to recite his slogans, and gave the same accusations about voting for ArriveCan, but this time directed to the NDP, to which Duclos repeated that if the opposition has question of the NDP, they should ask him not the government. Scheer repeated the slogans, and breathily worried about the carbon price increasingly, and misleadingly tied it to food bank use. Anita Anand reminded that climate change is real, and that they want to take money out of people’s pockets. Scheer misquoted the PBO about the carbon price, and linked it to people dumpster diving. Anand noted that they didn’t refute that they don’t believe in climate change or that they want to take money from people’s pockets.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he took his own shot at the NDP, accusing the government of spending on things Quebec already has and are not their priorities. François-Philippe Champagne acknowledged that they do take inspiration from Quebec, and noted they didn’t want to talk about their investments in the province. Therrien demanded more federal money instead of programmes, to which Mark Holland accused them of trying to start fights instead of helping people.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he demanded the government reform Nutrition North, claiming that the subsidies are not passed along to consumers. Dan Vandal insisted that they are working to ensure that the subsidy is fully passed along, and that progress has been made. Singh repeated the demand in French, and got the same response. 

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Roundup: Trying to allay diaspora concerns

After two diaspora groups pulled out of the foreign interference inquiry, Justice Marie-Josée Hogue released a statement yesterday outlining precautions that are being taken to protect witnesses and sensitive information, which is hoped will allay their concerns (though some of those concerns have to do with the three politicians being given standing and the ability to cross-examine other witnesses).

It should probably be noted that this was probably inevitable. David Johnston warned as much of this in recommending against a public inquiry, but hey, politics took over and here we are.

https://twitter.com/chercywong/status/1760726555259752568

Ukraine Dispatch:

There has been a drone strike in Odessa, killing three. It is hoped that examining the debris of the North Korean missiles that the Russians have acquired and are using against Ukraine will offer clues as to how they are avoiding sanctions. Here’s a look at two years of conflict through the eyes of one Ukrainian soldier who has seen it all. Here is a look at those whose relatives have gone missing in combat and their bodies not yet found. Reuters has a photo library from the first two years of the war.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1760766644995887429

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Roundup: The wrong people taking credit for disinflation

Statistics Canada released the January Consumer Price Index data yesterday, and lo, it shows that inflation is dipping back into the control range at 2.9% annualized, which was lower than anticipated, and fairly broad-based including food prices decelerating to just above the headline number, meaning prices are stabilising finally, and yet somehow, with carbon prices still in place, and the grocery oligopolies not having been subjected to punitive windfall taxes. Imagine that!

In all seriousness, because there were month-over-month price drops in fuel prices in Manitoba thanks to Wab Kinew’s decision to pause gas taxes, and Saskatchewan not collecting the carbon levy, we got a bunch of people who should know better saying stupid things about carbon prices and inflation. Kinew, who has economics training, should especially know better.

Inflation is a year-over-year measure. Carbon prices have a negligible impact on it because it rises at the same level every year, so it’s not inflationary. A one-time drop in prices is also not deflationary or disinflationary because it’s a one-time drop, not sustained or pervasive. If you need a further explainer, economist Stephen Gordon has resurrected this thread to walk you through it.

On the subject of things that are unfathomably dumb, it looks like the CRA has decided to buy Saskatchewan’s transparent legal fiction that the provincial government is the natural gas distributor for the province, in spite of it being against the clear letter of the federal and provincial law, which means that consequences for the province not remitting the carbon levy on heating will be borne by Cabinet and not the board of SaskEnergy. What the hell?

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian attacks on the northern part of Ukraine killed seven on Tuesday, while Ukraine’s forces say they destroyed 13 out of 19 drones launched by Russia on Wednesday. Ukrainian officials are investigating the Russians shooting three soldiers captured on Sunday. Here is a look at the shattered ruins of Avdiivka. Ukraine’s state arms producer has signed an agreement with a German arms manufacturer to help produce more air defences domestically.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1759942168989360468

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Roundup: A choice of passive voice

The reported death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny triggered reactions around the globe, and especially at the security conference underway in Munich, where Navalny’s wife spoke shortly after the news. Reaction from Canadian figures was pretty swift. Justin Trudeau was on CBC radio and was quite blunt: “It’s something that has the entire world being reminded of exactly what a monster Putin is.”

And then there was Pierre Poilievre, who passive-voiced the whole thing.

Between this and his votes regarding the Ukraine trade agreement, it’s not unreasonable to conclude that he is winking and nodding to a certain online audience. And while certain pundits have been “We think the initial vote was a mistake and he can’t take the L so he doubles down,” I suspect it’s more like “Sure, some Ukrainian diaspora communities are going to be pissed off, but what are they going to do? Vote Liberal? Hahaha.” They have hitched their wagon to the far-right PPC-voting crowd because they think that’ll get them the votes they need to win, and this is a crowd, that is mainlining Russian disinformation online, and believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a money-launderer buying yachts, that Putin is just trying to shut down “biolabs,” and throw in some antisemitic conspiracy theories about “globalists,” and it’s all stuff that Poilievre is willing to wink and nod to. Passive-voicing this statement was a choice.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1758543572578484364

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