Tag Archives: Trade

Roundup: Trying to jam the Liberals on the MOU

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Because Pierre Poilievre thinks he’s a tactical genius, he has announced that next week’s Conservative Supply Day motion will be about the MOU with Alberta, and forcing a vote on the language about a pipeline to the Pacific, in defiance of the tanker ban.

It’s a transparent attempt to try and jam the Liberals, at least rhetorically, into supporting the motion in order to show support for the MOU, after which Poilievre can keep saying “You supported it!” and “Give me the date when construction starts,” as though there’s a proponent, a project and a route already lined up (to say nothing about the long-term contracts about who is going to buy the product once it’s built, because yes, that does matter). The thing is, these kinds of motions are non-binding, and really means nothing in the end. So if a number of Liberals vote against it, it doesn’t actually mean anything, other than the rhetorical notion that lo, they are not fully in lock-step on something, which actually sets them apart from pretty much every other party where uniformity and loyalty to the leader and all of his positions are constantly being enforced in one way or another. Maybe he will tolerate differences of opinion—or maybe he’ll crack the whip. We’ll see when Tuesday gets here.

Ukraine Dispatch

The International Atomic Agency says the protective shield around Chornobyl has been damaged by Russian strikes.

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QP: Swipes at Marc Miller

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The PM was present today, as were the other leaders, and it remained to be seen what Carney would be grilled on. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, where he immediately took aim at Marc Miller being appointed to cabinet, blamed him for “ruining” the immigration system and increasing the cost of living (huh?) and then took aim at comments he’d made about being tired of the decline of the French language, while Poilievre claimed he wanted to defend it. (That would be news to much of Poilievre’s base). Mark Carney stood up to declare that the government has immigration “under control,” and that the number of asylum seekers have dropped by one third, and that they will defend the French language with the greatest investments in the cultural sector. Poilievre needled on Miller’s statement about being tired of the debate over the decline of French, and he wondered why Miller got appointed. Carney said that he was for his new minister and against Poilievre being against their investments in language and culture. Poilievre then switched to English to raise the lack of consultations with First Nations about the “promised” pipeline to the Pacific, and that the Assembly of First Nations condemned his plan, and demanded that Carney make it clear to them that they will build the pipeline and do the “consultations to make it happen” (without actually apparently getting their consent). Carney said that Hansard showed Poilievre wanted to ram a pipeline through while the government would consult to get free, prior and informed consent with First Nations, and work with the province of BC, because they know how to consult and respect. Poilievre took another swipe at Miller, and quoted Miller taking a few shots about the lack of consultations, and wondered why Carney didn’t start consultations eight months ago. Carney said that there needs to be a project and a proponent, and in order to do that, they needed to create the conditions to do so, which they have now done. Poilievre switched to the PBO’s report on housing, declaring it a “broken promise” go get housing built, and that it showed they would only get one percent of their promised houses built. Carney responded with a swipe that as a life-long MP, he’d never built anything, and then pointed out that Poilievre didn’t actually read the report, and listed the housing numbers contained therein. Poilievre hit back that Carney created the housing crisis in the UK after being governor of Bank of England (huh?), and insisted that he wouldn’t fulfil the promised housing, and pointed to the modular partial house that was used for a photo op and then dismantled. Carney pointed out that house was sent to Nunavut, and that it’s a place where people live and not just fly there for a photo op without meeting with the premier.

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc, and worried about BC’s rights around the possible pipeline. Carney insisted that they will work with the province and that everything will be done in cooperation. Blanchet argued that provinces need to be respected, and decried this particular “contract.” Carney insisted that this wasn’t a contract, but a memorandum of understanding that lays out a pathway in conjunction with the province and First Nations. Blanchet insisted that it was a contract, and worried about the tanker ban, and that all parties should sign it with free, prior and informed consent. Carney again insisted that it was an MOU that obligates Alberta to make environmental investments.

Carney then got up and left, to much Conservative consternation and chanting, and the Speaker had to deliver another warning.

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QP: Promises to steel workers

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The PM was in town, but not in QP as he prepared for his Cabinet shuffle to replace Steven Guilbeault. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, where he raised a report on the increase in food insecurity in Quebec, and he blamed the government for forcing them to pay more in taxes and inflation (which is contradictory because most taxes are disinflationary). Anna Gainey praised the government’s investments in things like the school food programme, their income tax cut, and investments in affordable housing. Poilievre claimed they voted against measures that feed bureaucracy instead of families and children, and claimed tried to draw a connection between the increase in children at food banks since with the creation of the school food programme, and make the false connection between government spending and food price inflation. Steve MacKinnon raised the child care benefit and automatic tax filing to ensure more people get benefits as more help for those facing food insecurity, which the Conservatives voted against. Poilievre switched to English to raise that Algoma Steel in Sault Ste Marie was laying off a thousand workers, and said that the prime minister failed to live up to his promises to protect their jobs, and said it was made worse by the fact that the government was raising the industrial carbon price. Mélanie Joly said that their thoughts were with the workers, and that they were in contact with Algoma, and that they have every confidence in those workers and they would support them while they developed new products for new markets. Poilievre said that Liberal thoughts wouldn’t put food on their tables, then turned to the another report on food insecurity, this time in Ontario, but again tied food bank use to industrial carbon prices (which, again, is bullshit). Patty Hajdu decried that the Conservatives have been fighting supports for people, and noted that they voted against the expansion of EI for workers like those from Algoma. Poilievre again blamed the industrial carbon price on food inflation, and François-Philippe Champagne touted their tax cuts, and proclaimed that the government was there for workers and families while Conservatives voted against them. Poilievre then pivoted to the latest Missing Middle Initiative report on housing starts being down, but blamed it again on the industrial carbon price, while somehow trying to tie this to Brookfield tax havens in Bermuda. Gregor Robertson retorted that if they cared about affordable housing, they would have supported the measures in the budget. 

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and raised Steven Guilbeault’s remarks in the media on the weekend, and wanted the government to admit they were abandoning the fight against climate change. MacKinnon praised the “clear commitments” in the MOU with Alberta, which was something to see with a straight face. Normandin wondered, rhetorically, why more Liberals didn’t follow Guilbeault’s lead. MacKinnon again praised the MOU and said that BC was the big winner with major projects. Mario Simard gave his own condemnation, and Mélanie Joly defended the agreement as energy sovereignty. 

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Roundup: The MOU and a resignation

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Prime Minister Mark Carney and Danielle Smith signed that MOU which will set up the conditions for Alberta to set up a process to build a bitumen pipeline to the coast where the tanker ban would be eviscerated, while also giving them a bunch of exemptions to other emissions reductions regulations, and the promise on Alberta’s part is to reduce emission intensity—meaning as they produce more, emissions are still increasing, just by a smaller amount in theory, though I certainly believe that intensity reductions in the oilsands flatlined a while ago. It also means that this relies even more on Pathways, which is expensive and is going to keep demanding money, and I have no confidence that Carney’s government will resist the calls to subsidise it directly. David Eby went on to refer to this future pipeline as an “energy vampire,” while coastal First Nations continue to insist it’ll never happen. And then Steven Guilbeault resigned from Cabinet, because this goes against everything he has been fighting for his entire life, and his time in office, while other MPs in his caucus are increasingly angry about how they are being treated over this issue.

https://bsky.app/profile/supriya.bsky.social/post/3m6ngogmhqs2x

In the midst of this, Andrew Leach has been reminding us about the real history of Northern Gateway, not the sanitized and revisionist version that the Conservatives have been promoting, and the fact that their constant demands that the government “get out of the way” didn’t seem to apply to the entirety of the Harper government, as the project started under the Martin government, and ultimately failed at the end of Harper’s tenure, when his government couldn’t even be arsed to follow their own process for Indigenous consultation.

In pundit reaction, Jason Markusoff notes that this agreement will do little to mollify the separatists in Danielle Smith’s base when her leadership review comes up. Andrew Coyne sees this as a shift in Canadian politics back toward building things, and capturing the political centre. Stephen Maher wonders just how politically canny Carney really is, considering the traps for himself that this agreement sets.

No it fucking won't. They've been gorging themselves on grievance porn for decades now. Nothing any government does is going to calm them.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-11-28T03:30:10.597Z

Danielle Smith Celebrates Her Glorious Pipeline Victoryyoutu.be/GVk54cla9zw

— Clare Blackwood (@clareblackwood.bsky.social) 2025-11-27T21:13:16.340Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Putin claims that Russian forces have surrounded Pokrovsk, while Ukraine contends that the fighting continues in the city centre, and that they are pushing back hard. He also says it’s no use signing an agreement with “illegitimate” Ukrainian leadership (because he really wants peace, you guys).

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1994013852753702989

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QP: The MOU and the stilted scripts praising it

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With the PM in Calgary for his big MOU signing with Danielle Smith, and his resource minister along with him for the photos, it was a real question as to who would be answering for this issue in QP today. Pierre Poilievre led off in English, and with a smug grin on his face, asked what year construction would begin on a pipeline to the Pacific. Steve MacKinnon stood up and read a statement about how the economy changed after the “rupture” with the U.S., and that was why this MOU was so great and so important. Poilievre then asked in what decade construction would begin on a pipeline, to which Julie Dabrusin listed the things Alberta agreed to. Poilievre mocked Dabrusin for not answering his question, and then lamented that this was all process to ensure that a pipeline would be built in the year…never. MacKinnon read a list of superlatives about the agreement. Poilievre insisted this was about keeping his own caucus quiet, and hands an unconstitutional veto to David Eby, and MacKinnon lamented that Poilievre wasn’t being a serious leader, because there was a duty to consult with the duly elected premier and the affected First Nations. Poilievre insisted that constitutionally, the premier minister is the only barrier to a pipeline, and he exhorted him to get out of the way. Dabrusin spoke about how great it was that they could move ahead and work cooperatively with Alberta. Poilievre zeroed in on the portion of the agreement regarding an industrial carbon price, lied about what effect it would have, and said that if they were in charge, they would approve the pipeline immediately (because who cares about the Coastal First Nations?) MacKinnon again listed things that were in this agreement and how great they were.

Yves-François Blanchet got up for the Bloc, and lamented that this agreement meant the government was abandoning its climate goals. MacKinnon in turn lamented that the leader of the Bloc only looks to sow division when the agreement was about working together for more clean energy. Blanchet said the document was pretty clear that they want a single Canadian economy that belongs to Calgary, ignoring BC or Quebec or First Nations. Dabrusin insisted that they would need an agreement with BC and the First Nations, and that Alberta has agreed to significant action on carbon pricing and methane emissions. Blanchet needled Dabrusin that it was terrible that she could endorse this document, and accused MacKinnon of saying things that are the “opposite of the truth,” and MacKinnon responded with more praise for what is in the agreement.

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Roundup: Low expectations for the Alberta MOU

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Today’s the big day where prime minister Mark Carney will be in Calgary to sign that Memorandum of Understanding with Alberta premier Danielle Smith regarding the province’s plans for their energy future. Everyone is focused on the potential for a pipeline to the BC coast as part of it, though it is apparently about more, such as maybe giving Albertan an out from other environmental regulations if they can complete certain other measures (which still leaves them off the hook considering that they are one of the largest emitters in the country).

But again, there is no actual pipeline deal as part of this. It lays out conditions that are probably going to be impossible to meet (particularly given that the Coastal First Nations, who are the rights and title holders in the area, have repeatedly said there is never going to be a pipeline that is acceptable). And while industry wants the tanker ban lifted, even as a “symbolic measure,” again that ban was the social licence for a number of other projects in the area to move ahead. And industry observers will still point out that even if they get everything they want, it’s still unlikely to find a proponent because the existing pipeline network can absorb the planned production capacity—and it’s no longer the world it was before 2014 and the oil market has changed significantly. That’s one reason by BC’s energy minister says this is little more than a $14 million “communications exercise.”

Meanwhile, Carney’s caucus problem is not going away, and while government thinks that they did a great job having Tim Hodgson explain things to BC caucus, members of said caucus were not exactly thrilled as Hodgson used words like “naïve” and “ideological” when responding to their concerns (thus cementing his status as the most overrated members of Carney’s front bench). And it also sounds like they’ve needed to calm Steven Guilbeault down from resigning in protest, though the current line is that he’s staying to do more good on the inside, but that’s not exactly offering much in the way of reassurance. So much of this goes back to what we were saying yesterday, that Carney is still operating like a boss and not a leader, and who thinks that he can dictate to caucus rather than live in fear that they can oust him if he oversteps (because they absolutely can, even if they don’t think they have that ability).

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-11-26T23:01:36.461Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The toll from the attack on Zaporizhzhia late Tuesday has risen to 19 injuries. The background of that “peace plan” has been leaked and proven to be Russian in origin, but Russia claims the leaks amount to “hybrid warfare.”

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QP: Brookfield conspiracy theories

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In spite of being in the building and preparing to make an announcement, the PM was not at QP, but Pierre Poilievre sure was. He led off in French, lamenting that there haven’t been any wins in tariff relief, no matter the concessions made, but nothing has come of it other than a contract for Brookfield, and he wondered if Brookfield was the only one getting wins. Dominic LeBlanc reminded Poilievre that Canadians didn’t place their trust in him, and the government was trying to find a good deal, while taking more measures to help Canadian industries. Poilievre switched to English to declare that David Eby has no constitutional authority to block a pipeline, but that the prime minister has the authority authorize one, and demanded that a pipeline to the Pacific be approved today. Tim Hodgson suggested he buy a ticket to Calgary tomorrow so that he can see how to work with provinces to Build Canada Strong™. Poilievre suggested that Carney stand up to his own caucus to build this pipeline. Hodgson suggested Poilievre ask Danielle Smith why she was working with the federal government. Poilievre again gave a jejune constitutional lesson and demanded the PM use his powers to approve a pipeline today. (What pipeline? What proponent? What route?) This time, Steve MacKinnon got up to praise Carney’s leadership. Poilievre intimated to Carney’s absence and got warned by the Speaker, said that if Carney is not there, he doesn’t care, and suggested Carney get up to show he cares. Hodgson repeated his line about buying a ticket to Calgary. Poilievre then pivoted to the Brookfield contract with the White House, intimating Carney had something to do with it, and LeBlanc reminded him that we have the best deal available as it is.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, repeated the accusation of yesterday that the federal government “cheated” in the 1995 referendum, but then pivoted to a question about trade. Lina Diab said that she’d not focused on the past, but on working to make the immigration system strong for Quebec and Canada. Blanchet then asked Steven Guilbeault if he was comfortable with Carney trying to do an end-run around emissions laws, to which Guilbeault hit back with Blanchet’s record as a provincial environment minister. Blanchet then needled Guilbeault again to demand a promise the no project would get approval without the consent of the provinces of First Nations. MacKinnon said that the answer was yes.

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Roundup: Assuaging Carney’s BC caucus

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The lead-up to this Memorandum of Understanding with Alberta is becoming politically fraught for prime minister Mark Carney as a whole bunch of his caucus, not the least of which is the party’s BC caucus, are getting pretty angry about the whole thing. And so, natural resources minister Tim Hodgson is supposed to go to BC caucus this morning to explain things and calm them down, but that seems like something that should have been done ages ago when this was first being discussed, so that they could both hear their concerns and alleviate any anxieties earlier in the process. And it doesn’t help that the message keeps changing from “BC has to agree,” to “We’re not giving them a veto,” and back to “BC has to agree, and so do the coastal First Nations.” But again, this is sloppy.

There was a pretty good explanation for this yesterday, on Power & Politics, when columnist Emilie Nicolas said that Carney needs to learn how to “be a leader and not a boss,” which is exactly it. Carney is still operating in CEO mode, and that’s just not how politics works. And this mentality keeps exposing Carney’s many blind spots, not the least of which has been his ignoring human rights violations and atrocities when he thinks he can get a trade deal with some dollars attached, or the debacle with the end of the “feminist foreign policy.” And yes, it’s been over six months now that he’s been in charge, and there are a number of lessons he’s still learning, but how much he’s internalising these lessons is up for debate.

Meanwhile, we are back to the discussion of what this MOU is supposed to accomplish, particularly considering that Alberta didn’t live up to the last “grand bargain” that they agreed to in 2017 with the Trans Mountain pipeline, so I’m not sure why Carney thinks they will this time. There have been suggestions that this is a way to try and defuse the situation by looking like Danielle Smith is being given a win even though the conditions for this fictional pipeline proposal are never going to be met, but the danger there is that a future government will start waiving these conditions (and let the litigation commence). Again, I’m not sure that Carney understands the political game here, but we’ll see.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-11-25T22:22:02.600Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones have attacked Zaporizhzhia, starting fires and injuring at least twelve people. Ukrainian drones hit a Russian oil refinery in Krasnodar, and an oil terminal in the port of Novorossiysk. President Zelenskyy says he’s willing to work with Trump on that “peace plan,” while Trump is now saying there is no firm deadline to reach an agreement.

https://twitter.com/Denys_Shmyhal/status/1993350012848197980

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QP: Admitting a poor choice of words

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After a week away, they PM was back in the Chamber for QP, and so were most of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, declaring that Mark Carney hasn’t been able to reduce a single tariff in his 28 trips abroad, but he did manage to find gains for Brookfield, including a deal that was signed days after his meeting with Trump, and he also noted that the European Space Agency is on a Brookfield-owned campus, and wondered why every time he goes abroad, Canadians get poorer and Brookfield gets richer. Carney dismissed this, saying that Poilievre should check his figures as Indonesia reduced their tariffs on Canadian goods, and that they got a $70 billion commitment of investment from the UAE. Poilievre then switched to English to declare how much he cares for workers after Carney made his “Who cares?” aside at the G20. Carney noted that since he became PM, Canada has secured the lowest tariff rate in the world, and that there are sectors for whom they are under pressure, and the he does care and they are enacting further supports. Poilievre gave another “who cares?” exhortation, and Carney took a swipe at Poilievre not getting elected before admitting that he made a poor choice of words on a serious issue, and rounded off with some back-patting about his trade deals. Poilievre insisted that Carney has made nothing but mistakes on trade, and raised that Stephen Harper got a softwood deal when he came into office, before going on another paean about how much the cares. Carney insisted that they care about Canadians, which is why they have a budget to “catalyze” investments, while the Conservatives voted against Canada’s future. Poilievre returned his first question on Carney not getting any wins on tariffs and the supposed gains for Brookfield. Carney repeated out that Indonesia is reducing its tariffs by 95 percent, that we have the best deal with the Americans, and the UAE wants to invest $70 billion in Canada. Poilievre again insisted this was about Brookfield, before pivoting to the MOU with Alberta and demanded to know what date construction would begin on a new pipeline. Carney said that this was about necessary conditions, not sufficient conditions, and that the government of BC and the First Nations need to agree.

Christine Normandin rose for the Bloc and immediately accused the Liberals of cheating, and said that Chrétien sped up citizenships to help sway the Quebec in 1995, and wondered if they would cheat again in a new referendum. Carney pointed out that they have more Liberals in their caucus than the Bloc, and they respect Quebeckers. Normandin repeated her accusations, and again demanded a fair fight in a future referendum. Carney said the Bloc dwell in the past while he is turned to the future. Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe took over to make the same accusations, and Carney gave the same bland assurances around building for the future.

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Roundup: Political support for a new pipeline?

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More details are emerging about the Memorandum of Understanding that prime minister Mark Carney looks set to sign with Alberta premier Danielle Smith on Thursday, which would set the stage for political support for a pipeline to the northwest coast of BC if certain conditions are met. Those conditions include a stricter industrial carbon price in the province, and a “multibillion-dollar investment in carbon capture from the Pathways Alliance,” and there is apparently some language about Indigenous ownership and equity. In return, it looks like Alberta also gets a bunch of exemptions from other environmental legislation, which it would seem to me is just setting up fights with every other province who will want their own special deals and carve-outs.

BC premier David Eby is rightfully upset about being left out of the process (as Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe initially claimed he was part of the talks, which turned out to be mere self-aggrandisement). And while it’s true that the province can’t veto a project that falls under federal jurisdiction (and we have Supreme Court jurisprudence on this), it definitely feels impolitic to freeze him out, considering that making an agreement with Smith to overrule Eby’s stated wishes—and the wishes of the coastal First Nations—certainly has the feel of the US and Russia coming up with a “peace plan” for Ukraine. Eby also, correctly, points out that they would never do this with Quebec, which is a good point.

This being said, this remains about a hypothetical pipeline that may never come to fruition because they are unlikely to get a private sector proponent, because the oil market changed in 2014 and Alberta refuses to accept that fact. What I am more concerned about is just how many billions of public dollars are going to be consume by Pathways in order to try and make it viable, and it just won’t be, and we’ll have wasted years, billions of dollars, both of which could have been better spent coming up with a more reasonable transition to a greener future, because again, it’s not 2014 anymore.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-11-24T23:08:02.124Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones and missiles have hit residential buildings in Kyiv, starting fires and killing at least one person. Ukrainian officials are apparently working with the Americans on the so-called “28-point peace plan” to make it more palatable.

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