Category Archives: Political Roundup

What’s going on in Canadian politics

Ceding the recession narrative

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The is-it-or-isn’t-it recession talk continued apace over the weekend and on Monday, as Pierre Poilievre demanded an emergency debate on it (which the Speaker denied), while more economists continued to line up on the side of “it’s not a recession.” Even the senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada appeared at committee and warned them not to take a single point of data when the economic indicators as a whole remain mixed.

Ignore all of those other economists, including the Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada. Andrew Scheer, who couldn't even complete his insurance certification, is going to school you on the recession.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-06-02T01:36:43.140Z

This being said, prime minister Mark Carney has been wholly silent on it since the data were released on Friday morning. He made two separate media appearances yesterday but took no questions at either one, and he has avoided Question Period yesterday and he’s avoiding it today, and it really starts to look like he’s ceding the ground to Poilievre, who keeps bellowing his ridiculous narratives while Carney, who is supposed to have the economic gravitas as a former central bank governor, remains absent. And there are important things we should probably be talking about with this data, such as the fact that in periods of slow growth, these indicators dipping below zero are less important than the overall picture, and that overreacting and panicking can lead to greater problems or damage in the longer term. But we’re not having this conversation because, again, Carney is ceding the field, and given that Poilievre seems to enjoy this unearned economic credibility, it’s frankly arrogant to think that his bogus narratives can’t gain traction because they absolutely can, and that will spell trouble overall.

My Latest:

  • For National Magazine, my dive into Friday’s pair of Supreme Court of Canada decisions on the exceptions for the Jordan timelines on trial lengths.
  • My weekend column points to things that Steven Guilbeault’s departure has highlighted as just how much this government is backsliding on its climate goals.

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A technical recession?

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Yesterday morning, Statistics Canada reported that the first quarter of GDP was very slightly in the negative on an annualized basis—on a real GDP quarter-over-quarter basis, it was flat (and if you really want to get into it, GDP per capita was up after a second quarterly population decline). This immediately led to a flurry of speculation of whether this is a “technical recession,” meaning two quarters of negative growth, or not, given that the data were mixed. And three economists who spoke to the Financial Post said it’s not a real recession, and it was also noted that when the data are revised in the next quarter’s release, it may very well be revised upward. To add to that, the preliminary estimate for April GDP is that it rose 0.4 percent, so that means that we would already be out of said recession if we were indeed in one.

Pierre Poiliever, however, pounced on this, screaming that it’s a RECESSION and he quickly added to all of the QP scripts that morning that “Canada is the only G7 country in a recession,” but since most of the questions were on prime minister Mark Carney’s in-flight meal service on the government jet, it sounded an awful lot like he was blaming said recession on said in-flight catering. Because we’re a serious country. Poilievre then called a hasty press conference to say that this was all Mark Carney’s fault, because no other G7 country is in a recession, as though their economies weren’t as exposed to the US and its tariffs as ours is. Once again, we appear to have no actual adults in our parliament.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2060452517142827077

Noted economist Andrew Scheer has deigned to correct The Canadian Press' headline.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-29T22:54:32.367Z

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Canada Strong to help MAGA?

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Prime minister Mark Carney was in New York yesterday to address the Economic Club of that city, and as part of his speech, gave the line that “Canada Strong™ will help Make America Great Again”—a line that was sure to get a reaction from the White House as much as it got a reaction from the American ambassador. Carney continues to believe he can outmanoeuvre Trump and company, and that he can be so clever as to keep with the talk about “ruptures” and diversifying trade while still trying to get “fortress North America” and even deeper integration with the Americans on other files. You want to assert sovereignty, but keep finding excuses to try and get even closer when the money is just right? Eventually something is likely to give, and it just might be Canadians’ patience.

This being said, I also noted the list of people that Carney met with, and it’s a lot of big money bosses, like Blackrock and JPMorgan Chase—the kind of money that is unconcerned that America has devolved into outright fascism. I will note that is also while the Canadian military signed an agreement with the Canadian branch-plant of an American techno-fascist’s digital asbestos firm, but justified it as being a “legitimate” procurement process. So much of this is starting to feel like the casino scene from The Last Jedi—a look at the monied class that is unconcerned that there is a war going on (or that the capital was obliterated days ago) because they are profiting by selling to both sides. Carney sucking up to this monied class in New York feels an awful lot like that right now.

The list of who the PM met with in New York today.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-29T01:47:21.770Z

IYKYK

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-29T01:47:21.771Z

effinbirds.com/post/8132596…

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-28T13:08:05.261Z

My Latest:

My column points to the crisis in grassroots democracy that is brewing in the Ontario Liberal Party that the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest revealed.

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Amending the lawful access bill?

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This government’s utter ineptitude on the lawful access file would be farcical if it wasn’t so serious. After years of opposing it because it’s unconstitutional, the Liberals did an about-face and suddenly supported it once Carney took office, and they immediately insisted that this was crucial for law enforcement. Then they had to redraft the provisions into a separate bill because there was a tonne of pushback, tacitly admitting they got it wrong, but still would say in Question Period that the opposition should have helped them pass it months ago. You know, when it was flawed. Then the minister insisted that the pushback was “misinformed” and that they simply didn’t do a good enough job communicating around the bill, and had Public Safety’s media team aggressively trying to push journalists around if they didn’t publish the government’s line, and would send the RCMP and CSIS out to media to make the case for it, while they contradicted themselves along the way. (It’s not about expanded surveillance—but we need to ensure that they have the capability to have that surveillance when we say so!)

I lived in Romania shortly after the fall of the Iron Curtain. It was rumored that the Securitate could remotely activate the microphones of any phone to turn it into a listening device. That was chilling.

— David TS Fraser (@privacylawyer.ca) 2026-05-28T00:02:55.364Z

Under Bill C-22 Lawful Access, the Minister of Public Safety can secretly order every phone manufacturer to embed that same capability into the phone in your pocket. That's also chilling.

— David TS Fraser (@privacylawyer.ca) 2026-05-28T00:02:55.384Z

Would the current Minister do that? Don't know. Would a future Minister do that? Don't know. I know that the police currently get warrants to implant spyware on phones. They'd love to have that capability without a warrant, and would put pressure on the Minister to enable that.

— David TS Fraser (@privacylawyer.ca) 2026-05-28T00:02:55.406Z

And now after even more pushback, they’re saying they will be introducing amendments, again admitting that they still got it wrong—but again, still chiding the opposition that it should have been passed months ago. We’ll see what those amendments look like, but the minister is not exactly instilling confidence in what he’s proposing. I worry that they plan to use their majority to bully this through regardless, but after so many admissions that they keep getting this wrong, I have zero confidence that this won’t blow up in everyone’s faces, and eventually be struck down by the Supreme Court of Canada because they ignored all of the warnings.

Meanwhile, at the moment when the Minister should be most familiar with the details of his Bill, he flubs up something pretty basic and important.

— David TS Fraser (@privacylawyer.ca) 2026-05-27T23:25:37.244Z

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Setting the terms of the referendum debate

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As the Alberta referendum “debate” starts to heat up, you are seeing a lot of places where separatists or their proxies are trying to set the terms of debate on the federalist side, whether that’s demanding to be platformed so that they can spout lies and distortions, or treating emotional appeals as “flamethrowers” when they are allowed to use absolutely unhinged rhetoric with no consequence. They have become used to the kinds of egregious both-sidesing in legacy media that allowed MAGA to flourish in the States, or that allows Conservatives in this country to lie with wild abandon because they know they won’t be called on it, and if federalists don’t want to play that game, they cry foul.

The thing I am most concerned about, however, is federalists conceding that the invented grievances of these Alberta separatists are somehow legitimate—particularly when it comes to small-c conservatives advocating on the federalist side. And it’s going to be nigh impossible for them to actually argue against the invented grievances because they rely on them to this day to make their points. Max Fawcett made a very trenchant argument in that Albertans have become addicted to grievances politics (true!) and that Conservative politicians and pundits need give that up if they want to save confederation. That’s also true, but might be an impossible-level challenge for them to do, because that kind of grievance politics are all most of these Conservatives have ever known, and they don’t know how to argue in any other way. And this is why I worry about the Pandora’s box that’s been opened, because the people who are going to be counted on to save confederation are going to be unable to do what is required of them, because nobody will actually call bullshit on these grievances after Albertans have been force-fed them for so long that they’ve internalised them. That could wind up being a fatal flaw in the federalists’ arguments.

My Latest:

New episodes released early for C$7+ subscribers. This week I delve into the Online Streaming Act obligations, and why it's not a "Netflix tax." #cdnpoli

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-27T01:34:48.770Z

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The “dangerous bluff” of a referendum

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Prime minister Mark Carney made a housing announcement yesterday morning, when he was inevitably asked about the proposed Alberta referendum. Carney invoked his time in the UK and the experience with Brexit, that for people who think that this kind of referendum is just a way to send a message and that there are no consequences are playing a “dangerous bluff” that will have consequences. And yes, he would know, because he watched it happen and lived with the fallout. But will this actually help? Hard to say, but Conservatives have already been seeding the narrative that Carney created a lot of the post-Brexit economic damage with claims that he was “printing money” and fuelling inflation and so on, so the very people who need to hear the message have already been primed to ignore it. So that’s helpful.

Carney was also asked about the fourteen members of his caucus that sent him a letter about his environmental backsliding, and to this, Carney basically swatted the question away saying he has 160 other members of caucus who are just fine with his moves. This, however, starts to sound a wee bit arrogant for a party leader who has been patting himself on the back for listening to his caucus more than his predecessor did. You can pretty much guarantee that it’s not just these fourteen, but there are plenty more members of caucus who aren’t quite as willing to stick their necks out just yet but are similarly unhappy. They also learned a lot of lessons about pushing back against a leader when they started organising against Justin Trudeau in caucus, so the lessons are fresh, and Carney should remember that. As well, he’s betrayed the “Value(s)” he campaigned on and wrote a book about, so he’s already on thin ice with his voters on this issue. He may want to show a bit more contrition than this particular combative stance.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-25T13:08:03.361Z

My Latest:

  • My weekend column on Danielle Smith’s referendum, and why this is the culmination of decades of populism rotting the politics of the province.
  • My Loonie Politics Quick Take talks about the glut of senate bills hitting the Commons, and why MPs who complain about it have only themselves to blame.
  • For National Magazine, I looked at the appointment of the new advisory body for the next Supreme Court of Canada justice.

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Roundup: Referendum on a referendum reactions

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It was a strange day in the wake of Alberta premier Danielle Smith put having a referendum about a future referendum, as everyone was offering reactions. Prime minister Mark Carney summoned a small press pool to the empty Library of Parliament in the Centre Block, undergoing renovations, to make the somewhat bizarre case that he is “renovating the country” and that Alberta is essential to that. (Huh?) Pierre Poilievre says that national unity is the prime minister’s job, before going on to repeat the invented grievances that the separatists are furiously masturbating over, while other Conservative MPs started tweeting variations of the same. A group of small-c conservatives launched a “Vote to Stay” campaign, and Jason Kenney is attaching himself to that while refusing to take any responsibility whatsoever for creating this situation when he invited the separatists into his “united” party (before they ate his face). Here is some assorted reaction quotes, while the Calgary Chamber of Commerce is denouncing the move as coming at the worst time for the economy in the province.

Takes no responsibility for creating this situation, and now wants to swoop in to play hero.Fuck that guy.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-22T17:20:14.040Z

Also, "Alberta Built Canada"? Because apparently we're going to engage in self-aggrandizing bullshit in the name of national unity? Speaking as an Albertan, my eyes rolled so far back in my head I saw black.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-22T17:20:14.041Z

Brexit lessons: – An insurgent populist right will be invigorated by a referendum, not vanquished- They don't care about Leave/separate as a real policy. They possibly don't even want it implemented. It's a vehicle for grievances, racism, and graft- Crypto and dark money will sink you

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes.bsky.social) 2026-05-22T14:09:20.929Z

Brexit lessons cont:- The pro movement will make dry, factual cases for support that don't resonate- The Leave/Cede side will make emotive, wildly untrue claims that are actually about tapping into grievances and identity- Dark money will sink you

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes.bsky.social) 2026-05-22T14:10:51.779Z

And Smith? She was busy casting blame about to everyone else for “causing” this to happen when she knows damn well this is her decision. She also told the separatists to focus on the referendum rather than trying to oust her, which just confirms once again that this is all about her own fortunes, and to hell with the rest of the province and the country as a whole. Smith also says she wants to try to amend the Constitution to “refine” Indigenous land rights, as though this isn’t their land that they agreed to share (and we’ve been screwing them over ever since).

Danielle Smith Is Holding A Referendum Whether You Whiny Losers Like It Or Notyoutu.be/N_q4WLMdUQQ

— Clare Blackwood (@clareblackwood.bsky.social) 2026-05-22T19:41:46.443Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-22T19:08:02.606Z

Supreme Court

Yesterday was both the final hearing for Justice Sheilah Martin before she retires, and also the final hearing in the iconic courtroom at the Supreme Court’s building before the Court decamps for their new digs this summer so that the building can undergo needed reparations. As someone who was there for the final sitting in Centre Block, being present for the last hearing at the SCC was also a little bittersweet.

You can watch the Chief Justice’s remarks, plus Justice Martin’s farewell speech, here.

Justice Martin makes remarks on her decision to retire in advance of the mandatory date, and asserts that her health is excellent. She then speaks about her time on the bench. #SCC

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-22T13:37:45.698Z

Justice Martin: “The joke is often that it’s like having eight spouses. And I will add: in an arranged marriage.” #SCC

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-22T13:41:48.569Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile struck a UN relief supply warehouse in Dnipro, destroying $1 million worth of aid. Ukrainian drones hit another Russian oil refinery, this time in Yaroslavl, some 700 kilometres away from the Ukrainian border.

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Roundup: A referendum on a referendum

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Alberta premier Danielle Smith held a televised address last night to announce that the province would be holding a non-binding referendum on whether to hold a binding referendum on separation. No, seriously. After the separatists’ petition was tossed by the Court of King’s Bench, and the Forever Canada petition was unsuitable for the purposes of such a referendum on separation, Smith decided to try and be too-clever-by-half, and sit on that fence as hard as possible so that she can try and throw the separatists a bone without looking like she is actively campaigning for them (in spite of the fact that she has given them absolutely everything under the sun to make their lives easier, including a referendum with no democratic mandate).

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3mmfrqdahts2x

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-22T01:00:14.133Z

While I will write about this in more depth in my weekend column, let me say for the moment that this was Smith’s choice, and it does nothing but prolong the uncertainty, make it more likely to give the separatists leverage because it can be shrugged off as a non-binding vote that will become the repository of the grievances that Albertans have been marinating in since the eighties, and spiral out of control like Brexit did. But Smith refuses to confront the separatists, and nobody will actually say the words “Normal people can buy UCP memberships and drown out the separatist loons trying to take control of the party.” No one person has even suggested that. Instead, we’re pretending that referendums are democracy when they are in fact just elite-driven fuckery dressed up in democratic clothes, and ignoring the crisis in grassroots democracy that has created this crisis in the first place. It’s absolutely damning about the state of the province.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2057607415596831039

Jen Gerson: "The momentum here right now is on the side of people who treat the idea of the Republic of Alberta as a kind of religious movement. It's a millenarian movement … heavily influenced by the kind of nihilism that infects a lot of the broader MAGA movement."

— Scott Robertson (@sarobertson.bsky.social) 2026-05-21T21:03:33.190Z

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre was asked about a potential referendum earlier in the day, and he said he would fight for Canada, but did so in the most tepid way possible while he continued to grind on the invented grievances that have helped get us to this point, because he is both a coward and intellectually bankrupt. Yes, it’s important that we have conservatives be the voices for national unity in the province, but if you’re going to do it by carrying on the fictions that somehow the Liberals were responsible for the oil crash in 2014, you’re not actually helping. And if someone suggests Jason Kenney be that voice because he is now an enemy of the separatists after they ate his face after he brought them into the “united” party, then they deserve a smack upside the head. Kenney created this mess, and he refuses to take responsibility for that fact, and until he does, he shouldn’t be any kind of voice of moral authority here.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3mmeymnle2k2j

"Unblock the resources." Oil production is at record highs. Alberta has the highest per capita incomes in the country. Just mouthing along with the invented grievances of the bad faith actors who put us in this position.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-21T19:44:20.395Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-21T13:08:04.230Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Here is a look at all of the Russian energy sites that have been attacked by Ukrainian drones over the past couple of weeks.

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Roundup: Authoritarian theatre, separatist referendum edition

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Danielle Smith’s attempt to engineer a separation referendum in Alberta went entirely off the rails yesterday in one of the most cynical yet spectacular ways yesterday. The legislative committee that is supposed to make the determination on the petition process met yesterday, in a somewhat desperate move, to consider the Forever Canada petition, which Smith has been poised to weaponise as her referendum because it wouldn’t require First Nations consultation because it’s framed in the positive of remaining in Canada. Never mind that petition author and former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk doesn’t actually want this as a referendum—he wants it to be a vote in the legislature, so that the UCP owns it. Nevertheless, midway through the meeting, the UCP sent out a press release saying that they had agreed to turn this into a referendum, complete with quotes from the chair, when no votes had been taken.

And then all hell broke loose. The UCP sent out a note to disregard the press release, while inside the committee, NDP members were moving points of privilege which will need to be adjudicated by the Speaker of the Assembly. It also turns out that Danielle Smith had booked airtime tonight, so this entirely looks like the fix was in, and that the committee process was merely authoritarian theatre to manufacture consent, so that Smith can continue to placate the separatists in her base. The whole thing is both cowardly on Smith’s part, and just amateurish beyond belief.

Now we know.Smith committed to give separatists a referendum. She pre-recorded her tomorrow’s TV address, before the Legislature committee had a chance to vote on the #ForeverCanadian petition. UCP sent out a press release on a vote that didn’t happen, while they supposedly listened to me#ableg

— Hon. Thomas A. Lukaszuk (@lukaszukab.bsky.social) 2026-05-21T00:17:52.059Z

But there is a point to this amateurishness, which Jen Gerson points out here—these people think that they’re strategic geniuses for engineering conservative victories in Alberta, and so they’re overconfident in their abilities. Jason Kenney was, and lo, the leopards he let into the house at his face, while Smith has tied herself into so many knots to try and placate those same leopards in the hope that they won’t eat their face, while they are staring at her and licking their chops, but she insists that she’s the strategic genius here. None of this is going to end well, in part because these are deeply stupid and unserious people, and the country is going to suffer as a result.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-20T19:08:01.746Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missile, drone and artillery attacks on Dnipro killed two and injured six. Ukraine is bolstering their northern defences over concerns of a planned new attack on Kyiv. Oil refining in central Russia is at a standstill thanks to Ukrainian attacks.

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Roundup: Stupid games with the Snowbirds

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This story about the Snowbirds has ground down my patience with this government. A couple of weeks ago, Conservative MPs and Senators were in the middle of a meltdown over the fate of the aerial demonstration squadron, and we kept being assured that this was nothing, they were going to keep flying, that the Conservatives were misinterpreting the schedule because it only went up to fall, and future dates were typically released later, and there would be more to announce on the 19th, but their future was assured. And media outlets wrote whole stories based on these Conservative meltdowns which had no basis in fact.

And then the 19th comes around, and the defence minister announces that the squadron is being grounded at the end of the summer until the early 2030s until replacements can be acquired, which they are still negotiating (though some of the stories say the replacements are already on order, but they’re still negotiating, so I’m not sure how that works). So, the minister was not exactly being honest when he said that everything was fine, because once the squadron is grounded, it will have to be completely rebuilt once the new planes do arrive, and that could be in five years or it could be in ten (given the way procurements go in this country). When asked, Prime Minister Mark Carney shrugged and said it was a problem he inherited so not his fault, but guys—this is not what you were messaging two weeks ago. You need to own that.

As for the specifics, it seems that in spite of the Trudeau government’s attempt to prolong their lifespan until 2030, the airframes were showing too much wear for them to be safely extended, so they didn’t make it that far. But certain Conservative MPs going on political shows yesterday seem to think that because this money was spent, that the existing jets should keep flying regardless. (That’s not how airframes work!) But yes, Conservatives are correct in pointing out that the replacement process should have started much earlier under the Trudeau government, but no, signing a petition on the Conservative website is not going to change anything (other than, of course, to mine your data). Frankly, everyone has behaved absolutely abominably throughout this whole affair, and it’s one more reason why we can’t have nice things in this country.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-19T19:08:20.600Z

In case you missed it:

  • My story for National Magazine about Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision that creates a tort of intimate partner violence moving forward.
  • My long weekend column on the fact that this government is inept at internet policy, whether it’s lawful access of the massive surveillance needed to age-gate sites.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missiles struck Chernihiv and Sumy regions, killing four, after previously striking Odesa and Dnipro, as well as Ukraine’s Danube port in Izmail. Ukraine, meanwhile, has struck a major oil refinery in Moscow, and their medium-range strikes are taking out logistics hubs supporting the front lines.

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