Roundup: Myth-busting the carbon price on diesel

For months, we’ve been hearing the Conservatives blame the industrial carbon price and the clean fuel standard for rising food prices, often citing the so-called “Food Professor” as the source of these claims. They’re hilariously wrong, but just how wrong? Energy economist Andrew Leach does the math, and demonstrates where the “Food Professor” went so wrong. (Some of these are threads, so be sure to click through because they were too long to replicate in this post).

And the longest explainer thread is here:

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 430 drones and 68 missiles at Ukraine on Saturday, and six people were killed, five of them in Kyiv. President Zelenskyy says that Ukraine wants money and technology in return for the anti-drone assistance they are providing to countries in the Gulf region.

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Roundup: Another call for NEP 2.0

Pierre Poilievre has written another letter to the prime minister, this time demanding the creation of a strategic oil reserve like other countries have, never mind that unlike other countries that have said reserves, we are a net exporter and not a net importer (and yes, the US is now a net exporter, but they were not always, which is why they have a strategic reserve). The most ironic thing? This is just one more example of Conservatives demanding a redux of the hated National Energy Programme that Pierre Trudeau tried to launch in the late seventies, after the global oil crisis that happened then.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2032212730762166778

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2032122736475337196

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2031814419584520455

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2031815720108257417

Of course, part of this has to do with Poilievre’s fantasy notion that such an oil stockpile, along with critical minerals, is going to be how he gets leverage over Trump in trade talks, and that it can be used to bolster allies—but only allies with whom we have tariff-free trade agreements. Never mind that it is unlikely to persuade Trump to abandon tariffs, which he loves. Never mind that he has no plan for how to pay for such a stockpile, and he would need to fund some kind of an oil arbitrage agency. It’s facile, and it’s deeply cynical, particularly because included in this demand are once again the insistence that we abolish environmental laws, because Poilievre has convinced himself that they’re just one big con, and that it’s a bunch of environmental elites somehow profiting off of said laws (because apparently there are no costs to climate change, and it’s all just in our imaginations).

https://twitter.com/coreyhoganyyc/status/2032214070892642460

Meanwhile, the Canadian Climate Institute published a report that says that once the industrial carbon price reaches minimum price of $130 per tonne, that it would effectively add fifty cents to a barrel of oil, in direct contravention to the pronouncements of doom that Poilievre and the Conservatives keep insisting that said price is doing to food prices and the economy. This after certain pundits claimed it would add $20 per barrel, which is of course nonsense.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2031860654190281176

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2032152971174428885

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian drones hit an oil pumping station in Russia’s Krasnodar region. Ukraine signed a joint defence procurement with Romania, that includes the production of drones.

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QP: Demanding a strategic oil reserve

The PM was on his way to Yellowknife, and Pierre Poilievre was elsewhere, in advance of his own trip to the US, leaving it up to Melissa Lantsman to lead off. She complained that there is no strategic oil reserve, and demanded the government adopt their plan to create one, to which Tim Hodgson explained how the IEA works, which is that net importers have reserves while net exporters don’t. Lantsman shot back that just because you don’t need one it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t, before she demanded the government scrap environmental laws to pump more oil. Hodgson responded that the Conservatives apparently can’t take a lesson from the Alberta government in working together to build. Gérard took over in French to demand the same oil reserve, to which Steven MacKinnon repeated Hodgson’s first response in French. Deltell accused the government of having “contempt” for Canadian energy, before he pivoted to food price inflation, and this time MacKinnon reminded him that he voted against all help for Canadians who needed it. Chris Warkentin took over, and in English, he too read the script on food price inflation with the falsehoods about “hidden taxes.” Wayne Long took a swipe about Poilievre going to Europe for no reason while Carney was in the Asia Pacific to sign trade deals including uranium. Warkentin tried again and Julie Dabrusin reminded him that the industrial carbon price has zero effect on food prices.

"A ten-year record of shutting down our oil and gas sector"

Aaron Wherry (@aaronwherry.bsky.social) 2026-03-12T18:23:43.134Z

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she worried about the government not informing the public about Canadian personnel at a military base in Kuwait being targeted by Iran. Anita Anand said that Canada is not participating in the conflict, but could not say more for security reasons. Normandin tried again, and Anand again stated that all Canadian Armed Forces personnel in the region are safe and sound, and then made a pitch for international law. Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay tried this yet again, and Anand repeated her same answer.

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QP: Our strategic oil reserve?

Quite unusually in the life of this Parliament, the PM was in attendance for a second day in a row, and with yet another floor-crosser in his ranks, this time Lori Idlout from the NDP. Pierre Poilievre was also present, and he led off in French, and again insisted that there are 700 Iranian regime agents in Canada that the government has not removed. Mark Carney said that this is a serious situation, that the government has already stopped 10,000 IRGC from entering the country, that they are 140 investigations and 28 under removal orders. Poilievre then switched to English to meander about supposed flip-flops and then demanded the government develop more oil and as exports. Carney noted that they already have record production and that new projects are already approved. Poilievre gave another meandering demand for more pipelines to the Pacific, and Carney cited his own book to say that they want the lowest risk and lowest cost oil and gas sector, which is why they have the MOU with Alberta and the Bay Du Nord project. Poilievre went on a tangent about not having stockpiles of oil, and again demanded the government “get out of the way.” Carney responded with a jab about Poilievre searching for new ridings to run in before he again touted record production levels. Poilievre again went on about not having a stockpile before again demanding the government “get out of the way.” Carney reminded him that importers need strategic reserves while exporters do not, and that the G7 has authorised the release from their collective stockpile. Poilievre claimed that the stockpile logic was backwards—which his hilariously wrong, and Carney quipped that Poilievre thinks he’s tapping a rich vein when it’s just a dry well.

Idlout is sitting next to Carney for #QP.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-03-11T18:20:43.585Z

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and once again, she raised the pension software and demanded a public inquiry. Carney responded that Service Canada has more than 7.7 million people successfully transitioned to the system, and that the backlog was reduced by 10,000 over the past week. Normandin tried again, calling it a financial fiasco, and Carney said that her accusations don’t relate to facts and the system is on budget. Sébastien Lemire tried the same lines again, and Carney said that the Bloc have refused all offers of briefings on the matter.

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QP: The phantom menaces of supposed terrorists and hidden taxes

While he had initially not planned to attend, things apparently changed and the PM did opt to show up today, as did Pierre Poilievre. He led off in French, and he immediately launched into his bullshit claims that the Trudeau government allowed Iranian terrorists into the country and that ten government needs to deport them. Mark Carney stated that the government deplores the shooting at synagogues and the U.S. consulate in Toronto, and they are offering police support, while the IRGC is already a listed terrorist entity. Poilievre meandered into food price inflation, and claimed it was because of the government’s “inflationary” taxes and policies. (Taxes are deflationary). Carney stayed on the claim about Iranian terrorists and said they are conducting removals, before switching to the food prices, and noted that they have provided additional support. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first bullshit claims, and this time Carney exhorted him to support Bill C-14 and gun control, and noted that the government is investigating potential IRGC members in the country and that they have committed to another thousand RCMP. Poilievre claimed that the government was more concerned with protecting turkeys from farmers than people from criminals, and again repeated his same bullshit claim about Iranian terrorists. This time Carney exhorted the Conservatives to support Bill C-9 to protect synagogues. Poilievre dismissed this as the government trying to protect the Jewish community by banning sections of the Torah, and again blamed the government for Iranian terrorists. Carney said that the Charter protects the Torah and the Bible and any other religious text. Poilievre then returned to his false claims about food prices and demanded the government cut those hidden taxes. Carney reminded him that he impact of the industrial carbon price is close to zero, but the impact of their trade agreements for the farmers in his riding is enormous. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he demanded clarity from the prime minister on his position on the Iran conflict and the strategic vision for the Middle East. Carney said that Canada supports the necessity of preventing Iran’s nuclear programme, but is not participating in the offensive operations and will not. Blanchet wondered what our European allies have come to in terms of position, and Carney listed the leaders of the G7 he has spoken to as they come up with a policy on de-escalation. Blanchet wondered if there were any short-term measures for those suffering from the affects of the conflict, such as higher inflation. Carney said the best option is de-escalation, which is why he is having conversations with other leaders in the G7 and in the Middle East.

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QP: Terrorists on our streets

After more than a week away, the PM was not present, despite being in the building, while Pierre Poilievre was also in the building but absent from QP. Andrew Scheer led off, and he railed about the industrial carbon price and the clean fuel standard, and demanded the government scrap them. Tim Hodgson pointed out to him that our energy production reached a record high, and that the government is fast-tracking projects to “solve the world’s affordability problem.” Scheer tried again, and this time François-Philippe Champagne reminded him that they already cut taxes and we are projected to have the second fastest growth in the G7. John Brassard took over, and he recited the same talking points with added sanctimony. Patty Hajdu hoped that he was not referring to things like the Canada Child Benefit or school food when he talked about “ideological programmes.” Brassard considered the government’s supposed anti-development laws are “hate-driven,” and Champagne again reminded him of the growth potential. Eric Lefebvre tried again in French, and Champagne praised the enhanced GST credit. Lefebvre railed about the things the government was doing to make things expensive, to which Mélanie Joly suggested he was basically reading the government’s game plan, except to toward the end, and invited him to cross the floor.

*hate-driven. Stupid auto-correct.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-03-09T18:58:38.122Z

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and yet again, decried the pension software system, and Patty Hajdu reminded her that twenty countries use this system, and that they are working through the backlog of cases. Normandin claimed the government didn’t listen to any of the concerns before it went live, and Hajdu reminded her that 7.7 million seniors are already getting benefits with no problem, and wondered if Normandin wanted them to stay on a sixty-year-old system in danger of failure. Sébastien Lemaire gave the same again, and Joël Lightbound repeated Hajdu’s same points en français. 

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Roundup: Ending a filibuster and starting the Iran debate

Two big things are up today in the House of Commons. First is a programming motion that would end the filibuster on Bill C-9, which is the hate crime bill that the Conservatives have been stalling on because the government agreed with the Bloc to remove the religious exemption to hate crimes. This has caused all sorts of howls, particularly from certain members of the Conservative backbench who are experienced propagandists, who claim that this is going to criminalise religious worship and that prosecutors will be combing the Bible to come after Christians, as though police have the time and resources to do that (as police are the ones responsible for laying hate crime charges—and are frequently the ones who don’t, even when merited). It’s stupid, it’s misleading, it’s dishonest, and the government has had enough, so they’re going to put their foot down and they will have the votes to pass this motion.

Yes, C-9 is a bill that is mostly just empty symbolism, and while civil liberties groups have their concerns that it could be used to criminalise legitimate protests, I would say that the bigger issue—the hate crimes that this is supposed to address—remain in the same position of waiting on police action or inaction. You can pass all the hate crime legislation you want, but if police don’t bother to investigate or lay charges (because most police do have a certain ideological bias), then it’s all for naught.

The other thing that will be coming up today will be a debate on the conflict in Iran, which will take place during the evening. The Government House Leader signalled this before needing to wait on the opposition parties to move anything in the Chamber, for all the good this is going to do. I’m sure the world is waiting with baited breath for MPs to read twenty-minute speeches into the records about how this violates international law (NDP, Bloc), that it’s great that the Supreme Leader was killed and how the Iran regime needs to be destroyed—completely ignoring that the Americans have no plan and will only make things worse (Conservatives), or just praising Mark Carney’s “leadership” and “pragmatism” (Liberals).

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile struck an apartment building in Kharkiv early Saturday, killing ten people. President Zelenskyy says that Ukraine is discussing joint arms production with the Netherlands for interceptor drones.

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QP: Dog-piling on Diab

The PM was in town but not present, in advance of his big upcoming trip, while Pierre Poilievre was also absent. Michelle Rempel Garner led off, and claimed that by the end of the year, there will be three million people in the country on expired work permits and demanded a plan. Lina Diab gave some boilerplate about how people can extend their permits and those with expired permits are expected to leave. Rempel Garner ginned up the outrage some more, and Dian listed how intakes are down, and that they have exceeded their francophone targets while the population decreased slightly. Rempel Garner cited a CBC story where Diab’s own caucus colleagues have no confidence in her, and demanded she be replaced. Diab listed measures that the government has taken to reform the immigration system. Rempel Garner pointed out that Diab can’t answer basic questions in committee and again demanded she be replaced. Diab switched to French to repeat her same lines about targets being met. Pierre Paul-Hus took over in French, and he quoted statistics about “fake” asylum seekers and claimed that appropriate security checks aren’t being done, and Steven MacKinnon got up to praise the minister and read the same script about targets being met. Paul-Hus took swipes at Diab, and MacKinnon went on a tear about how the Conservatives have no immigration policy.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and yet again raised the pension software, and apparently Quebec’s National Assembly passed a motion to decry federal waste. (Huh?) MacKinnon got up to deliver the well-worn lines about the scale of the project and that it is within budget. Normandin tried again, and Patty Hajdu insisted that the Bloc are patently wrong, and that they are moving three major systems to the new software. Sébastien Lemire took over to ask the same again, and Hajdu assured him that they are working to resolve all outstanding cases.

Why exactly is the Quebec National Assembly weighing in on federal software transformation? Do they have nothing better to do? #QP

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T19:34:35.135Z

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Roundup: Shrugging off the trade irritant list

Prime minister Mark Carney made remarks on the trade situation with the US yesterday, saying that the timelines being what they are, hope for any sectoral tariff deals will likely be rolled into the broader New NAFTA review taking place next year, in spite of the fact that we had apparently been close to a deal before they got blown up by the Reagan ads (though one should contend that it is more than likely that if it wasn’t the ads, something else would have been used as justification to call off the talks, because this is Trump exercising the so-called “art of the deal.”)

Carney was somewhat dismissive of the capitulation list that the US Trade Representative has laid out, and insisted that this was really nothing, that there are dozens of irritants on all sides, but made the promise again to protect Supply Management, because reasons. This being said, there has been commentary that within the existing market cap there could be better efforts for US dairy access, because of how the supply management system works in that only certain producers are allowed to hold the quotas for imports, and if they want to make it difficult, then the market cap doesn’t get reached. This has long been a complaint for Europe, because frankly, the Canadian system is designed with fuckery in mind. Fixing that might help alleviate some of the complaints, but it would take political will to actually do that (though I’m not sure just what American dairy we would be so eager to import, given that their cheese is nothing special compared to Europe or the UK).

Nevertheless, I am most especially worried about the Online Streaming Act and Online News Act complaints from the Americans, and that Carney would be tempted to dump those as capitulation for the sake of “continuing negotiations” like he did with the Digital Services Tax. The problem here is that Trump is going to bat for the tech broligarchy because they have pledged their fealty to him and offered him up large bribes, so he is bullying other countries on their behalf because they don’t want to be regulated. The fact that these specific complaints continue to be treated as trade irritants and not just tech bros being whinging babies is a problem, and will continue to be a problem so long as they remain his loyal backers.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian shelling near Odesa has killed one person, and hit power systems. This comes after an attack on power systems in five regions the night before. European countries have agreed on another €90 billion loan for Ukraine, putting off the question of frozen Russian assets once again. Here is a look at Russia’s hybrid warfare sabotage operations across Europe, designed to distract and overwhelm those country’s resources.

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Roundup: Getting played by your leakers

The Department of National Defence is investigating the leak of selective information by F-35 proponents that made that fighter look like a clear winner in the competition with the SAAB Gripen-E fighter, and the journalists who accepted the leak and wrote that story is getting a bit huffy about it. His story on the investigation quotes a Quebec journalists’ union about how important it is that journalists “do their work freely,” and that such a big purchase deserves scrutiny. This kind of self-righteousness is not unexpected.

That said, he also quoted security expert Wesley Wark who basically took him to the woodshed because the leak was quite obviously propaganda as it was selective, they didn’t provide information on the criteria that the scores were based on (just that it looked like the F-35s were the clear winner with no actual context), and this should have been completely obvious as part of the original story. It’s no secret that there is a cadre within the Canadian Forces that is heavily invested in acquiring as much American military tech as possible, in part because they operate so closely with American forces, but also because they are socialised into believing that it’s the very best and they want the very best, so they have been doing everything they can to manipulate the purchase of these fighters from the very beginning, starting with the Harper government who credulously just said “okay, we’ll sole-source it” on the military’s recommendation in the first instance, before it turned into something of a scandal because of the escalating price tag. (This is not how you do civilian control, guys). These same military folks seem to think that the Americans will never turn on us, and that Trump’s threats are not to be taken seriously.

I should be surprised—but really, I’m not—that the journalist in question allowed himself to be played like this, and clearly it did the job the leakers wanted because you had a bunch of pundits take the story to proclaim that the F-35 is the fighter for Canada, hands-down. That’s ultimately why I find the self-righteous response to a leak investigation to be…funny? Sad? Either way, I’m not a defence expert, but I do read and I do talk to people a lot, and I could see clearly that what got leaked was a frame-up job, and the journalist who wrote the original piece should have seen that as well, and done a better job of canvassing dissent to the leak rather than seeking out sources to confirm what the leakers were selling. But he didn’t, and so he got the head of a journalists’ union to get self-righteous on his behalf. It’s not great for the trust in the institution of journalism if we let ourselves get played like this.

Ukraine Dispatch

An underwater Ukrainian drone struck and disabled a Russian submarine docked at a Black Sea naval base (though Russia denies this). European leaders are meeting in The Hague to launch an International Claims Commission to compensate Ukraine for hundreds of billions of dollars in damages from Russia’s attacks and war crimes.

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