A lot of ink (or, well, pixels, I supposed) has been spilled over the past week about those leaked documents where Justin Trudeau allegedly told NATO leadership privately that Canada will never reach the two percent of GDP defence spending target, which shouldn’t be a shock to anyone who has paid a modicum of attention. And while we get these kinds of analysis pieces that try to dig more into the two percent target and its significance, we have to remember that it’s a lousy metric. Greece has been above it for years because of a stagnant economy and including military pensions in their calculations—and you can easily get to 2 percent of GDP by tanking your economy, while growing your economy makes that spending target increase impossibly. The other thing that the two percent metric doesn’t capture is engagement—Canada routinely steps up to meet its NATO commitments even without reaching the spending target, while certain European countries may meet the spending target but don’t participate in these missions (again, looking at you, Greece, but not just Greece).
Part of the problem is that while this is a conversation that requires some nuance, the two percent target is too easy for journalists to focus on, and that becomes the sole focus. It’s a problem because We The Media keep reducing this to a single binary “are we meeting/not meeting that two percent” rate, which doesn’t help advance the conversation in any way, but most of us refuse to learn because a simple binary is easier to understand/convey.
Fadden's op-ed is sharper than the one dropped the other day–no magic wishes for speedy procurement. Greater priority/attention to defence? Yes. Folks long argued that PMJT does not care about international affairs/defence and that seems apparent to me. https://t.co/HtLxEOqM5r
— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman) April 19, 2023
and no, the reason why we aren't sending troops to Haiti is not 2% or whatever–it is the same reason the CAF went to Latvia, it trained in Ukraine when it was safe. Those are largely risk free missions. Haiti? Risky & not clear what more troops would do for fixing policing 2/x
— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman) April 19, 2023
So, there are good reasons to spend more $ on defence, but there are bad arguments for it.
If the CPC was in power, I'd bet on cuts. As it stands, the Liberals have increased the absolute number on defence if not the one relative to GDP.
4/4— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman) April 19, 2023
What is deceptive here is that Canada had no real plans to do something else. Haiti was not going to happen–because
a) it is risky
b) no clear role for the CAF getting anyone closer to a desired endstate.That is, how does the Canadian military fix Haiti's politics? https://t.co/NmYTf09fSB
— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman) April 20, 2023
Ukraine Dispatch:
Fighting continues in the western part of Bakhmut, as Wagner Group mercenaries are worried about the coming Ukrainian counter-offensive. Ukraine’s minister of digital transformation says that new technologies are going to help them win the war, particularly as they enhance the accuracy of modern artillery.
Grateful to PM @JustinTrudeau for additional package of military aid. Canada and Canadian people demonstrate that the free world stands strong with us, as we are protecting our country and shared values. Thank you, Canada, for ongoing support till our victory.
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 21, 2023
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1649397099300093954