Tag Archives: First Nations

Roundup: Stupid games with the Snowbirds

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This story about the Snowbirds has ground down my patience with this government. A couple of weeks ago, Conservative MPs and Senators were in the middle of a meltdown over the fate of the aerial demonstration squadron, and we kept being assured that this was nothing, they were going to keep flying, that the Conservatives were misinterpreting the schedule because it only went up to fall, and future dates were typically released later, and there would be more to announce on the 19th, but their future was assured. And media outlets wrote whole stories based on these Conservative meltdowns which had no basis in fact.

And then the 19th comes around, and the defence minister announces that the squadron is being grounded at the end of the summer until the early 2030s until replacements can be acquired, which they are still negotiating (though some of the stories say the replacements are already on order, but they’re still negotiating, so I’m not sure how that works). So, the minister was not exactly being honest when he said that everything was fine, because once the squadron is grounded, it will have to be completely rebuilt once the new planes do arrive, and that could be in five years or it could be in ten (given the way procurements go in this country). When asked, Prime Minister Mark Carney shrugged and said it was a problem he inherited so not his fault, but guys—this is not what you were messaging two weeks ago. You need to own that.

As for the specifics, it seems that in spite of the Trudeau government’s attempt to prolong their lifespan until 2030, the airframes were showing too much wear for them to be safely extended, so they didn’t make it that far. But certain Conservative MPs going on political shows yesterday seem to think that because this money was spent, that the existing jets should keep flying regardless. (That’s not how airframes work!) But yes, Conservatives are correct in pointing out that the replacement process should have started much earlier under the Trudeau government, but no, signing a petition on the Conservative website is not going to change anything (other than, of course, to mine your data). Frankly, everyone has behaved absolutely abominably throughout this whole affair, and it’s one more reason why we can’t have nice things in this country.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-19T19:08:20.600Z

In case you missed it:

  • My story for National Magazine about Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision that creates a tort of intimate partner violence moving forward.
  • My long weekend column on the fact that this government is inept at internet policy, whether it’s lawful access of the massive surveillance needed to age-gate sites.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missiles struck Chernihiv and Sumy regions, killing four, after previously striking Odesa and Dnipro, as well as Ukraine’s Danube port in Izmail. Ukraine, meanwhile, has struck a major oil refinery in Moscow, and their medium-range strikes are taking out logistics hubs supporting the front lines.

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Roundup: More gas-fired electricity, just because

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Prime minister Mark Carney announced his national electricity plan yesterday, which he’s calling Powering Canada Strong™ (and I swear to Zeus, I am so tired of branding everything “Canada Strong™” by this point). He wants to double production by 2050, as well as connect provincial power grids with interties, build the skilled workforce necessary, and manufacture the technology to do so in Canada. And it all sounds well and good, but to get there, he plans to weaken the Trudeau-era Clean Electricity Regulations in order to allow a lot more natural gas-fired production. You know, for “flexibility.”

At this point you have to wonder how Carney can keep up the pretence that he is still going to meet our climate targets, and yet, he keeps saying that’s what’s going to happen. Sure, he’ll “adjust them,” but if you say we’re weakening them, he gets testy and huffy. But the notion that by “building up we can drive emissions down” is farcical on its face. It relies on the same logic of reducing emissions intensity while increasing the overall volume of production (and it was a tell that he used emissions intensity when talking about gas-fired electricity)—you’re still increasing overall emissions, albeit at a slightly lower rate. And to be clear, Canada was making progress in driving emission down, and we had an actual path to meeting our targets, but that has been completely blown out of the water now.

I’m also getting increasingly tired of this being billed as “pragmatic,” when it’s not in the longer term. The climate crisis is already here, and it’s reflected in the dramatic increase in wildfire season, extreme weather events, and increasing droughts that have pushed up food prices, at home and abroad. We can’t just keep ignoring this and treating climate goals or environmental protection as a luxury add-on. It’s essential to ensuring we have a stable economy of the future, and the fact that Carney and nearly everyone else is ignoring this fact is a really, really big problem, because the costs for kicking this down the road are already being felt. It’s only going to get worse from here, and they keep insisting that they want to make that future pain as bad as it can possibly get.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-14T19:08:01.779Z

Programming Note: I am taking the full long weekend off from the blog. See you Wednesday, and happy Victoria Day.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia’s massive drone attack continues, with the count at over 1567 drones since Wednesday, and the death toll now over 37 as an apartment building was struck. Zelenskyy’s former chief of staff has now been arrested in relation to money laundering charges. Meanwhile, the government of Latvia has lost its parliamentary majority over the handling of the incident where a Ukrainian drone accidentally flew into their territory.

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Roundup: Quashing a petition, neutering the carbon price

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The Alberta Court of King’s Bench ruled yesterday that the separatist petition did not engage the duty to consult with First Nations, given that it directly affects their interests, and it is effectively quashed, before the signatures were validated. It’s big news, and this could or should have been the off-ramp from the referendum that Alberta premier Danielle Smith could use to keep the situation from spiralling. But that’s not what’s happening.

This basically kills 301,000-signature petition separatists delivered to Elections AB to force referendum on independence.Premier Smith could still call referendum as gov't act, like separatist groups want her to. But lack of Indigenous consultation would still be problem. bsky.app/profile/mark…

— Jason Markusoff (@markusoff.bsky.social) 2026-05-13T20:09:36.464Z

Smith has instead declared that this decision is “anti-democratic” (which it absolutely is not, and this is populist rot), and that she will appeal it, because she wants this referendum to happen, either under the bullshit justification of a “relief valve” (which never works—it just makes things worse), or to get leverage from the federal government, not that it’s good leverage because it’s just driving away investment from the province because nobody wants to put money into a separatism situation where the uncertainty cranks up to eleven. But this will also mean that the separatists who control Smith are going to demand she just do a government-initiated referendum, which she has absolutely no democratic legitimacy to do, and which also can’t get around the duty to consult. After all, it’s treaty land, and the treaties are with the Crown, not the province of Alberta, which was not even in existence when those treaties were signed. Nevertheless, Smith has proven she is a separatist, in spite of her protestations, and this is

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3mlrcdwaag223

Entirely predictable.This was the endgame: give the appearance of collecting signatures. Whether or not you meet the threshold (legally) matters little if they'll never be counted.Then pressure the premier to call the vote.Will the premier call the big bluff?

— Jared Wesley (@jaredwesley.ca) 2026-05-14T02:49:22.510Z

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2054710644705022101

Meanwhile, word is out that the pipeline agreement will be signed with Alberta on Friday, and it rests on a significantly reduced industrial carbon price, and if Alberta is getting a special deal, well, that’s going to become the floor for the rest of the country because the whole reason the national price is constitutional, per the Supreme Court of Canada, is to ensure uniformity so that provinces can’t undercut one another on a race to the bottom. And to add to that, Carney’s rationale for cutting the consumer carbon levy was that they could make the industrial price more effective, and now he’s gutting that. And what will he get for this capitulation to Alberta? Nothing. It won’t appease the separatists, because they thrive on invented grievances and conspiracy theories. We’re going to blow up our environmental plans, build a pipeline to the coast on diminishing returns once the situation in Iran is cleared up and the world returns to a supply glut position, and the planet will burn. It’s a wonder that Liberals can look themselves in the mirror.

No lies detected.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-13T15:25:58.917Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-13T19:08:01.569Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia hit Kyiv with a massive drone and missile barrage early this morning, killing at least one and injuring at least sixteen others. This followed a daytime drone attack that struck close to the borders of NATO countries, killing six in the process. Ukraine has resumed targeting Russian oil and gas facilities.

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Roundup: Concerning nomination irregularities

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Liberal MP and provincial Liberal leadership hopeful Nate Erskine-Smith has formally filed an appeal over the results of Saturday’s nomination vote in Scarborough Southwest, listing a number of irregularities that included there being more votes in the ballot box than the number of people who registered to vote—34 added votes, when he lost by a mere 19 votes. There were also accusations that a suspicious number of people arrived to vote who “just lost their drivers’ licence” or “just moved to the riding,” and even more suspicious allegations of those who were on speakerphone or video calls in the voting booth, being directed how to vote.

The party’s interim leader had already dismissed this as Erskine-Smith being a sore loser, but there were scrutineers at the event, who are providing affidavits, who pointed to these irregularities, and they are people who have done election monitoring abroad, so we should be fairly confident in their observations. And even more to the point, Erskine-Smith has effectively removed himself from the race and wants an investigation for the sake of an investigation, because these are serious allegations. There have been operatives from both Liberals and Conservatives over on social media saying these kinds of tactics are endemic, but unfortunately most are pointing to the fact that the party allows temporary residents to vote, meaning that again, there is scapegoating happening (and to be clear, when Erskine-Smith says that there were temporary residents voting, his primary complaint was that they appeared to have no idea why they were there, which is not the same as a temporary resident who got involved in the riding association or campaign. There are problems with how these contests are run, but I’m also not certain that putting them under the jurisdiction of Elections Canada or the provincial election agency is necessarily the answer given how much of an expansion of their mandate and capacity would need to be, to the point that it would be unwieldy.

As for Erskine-Smith’s future, he has confirmed that he is resigning his federal seat regardless by the time the Commons rises for the summer. After that, he’s not sure. He lost this nomination, and it’s clear that there is a segment of the establishment within the Ontario Liberal Party that is going to resist him and his plans to make changes to how things are run, so it may not be worth his time and energy if this is how things will play out. It would be a loss for the provincial party, which needs a good kick in the ass, and he might be the best placed to do it, but if the party establishment is going to pull out all the stops to prevent him from getting that far, is there a point? (Meanwhile, Doug Ford will chortle and be premier for ever).

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched over 200 drones early Tuesday, killing at least six people in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Zelenskyy is facing a new challenge now that his former chief of staff has been charged with money laundering.

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Roundup: Closer to a deal with Danielle Smith

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Prime minister Mark Carney met with Alberta premier Danielle Smith Friday morning in Ottawa, and by all accounts, they made progress on finalising the terms of the MOU that would see a west coast pipeline built, with Smith saying that their final sticking point is the industrial carbon price but she expects they will get to a “win-win” deal. I don’t actually believe it will be win-win because every deal so far has been an abject capitulation where Alberta gets to flout the rules, either with longer timelines than everyone else, or a weaker effective carbon price (because the province keeps instituting new credits that lower the price). Smith also keeps saying that this deal will help “quell separatism,” which is also bullshit because they don’t actually care policy (which you’ll see in a moment), and the fact that she is encouraging them is not exactly doing anything to quell the movement—quite the opposite, in fact. Everything she has done has encouraged them.

And then by mid-afternoon, the government released their consultation documents for their planned “streamlining” of environmental assessments, which pretty much involves gutting the systems worse than Stephen Harper did, puts unrealistic timelines on consultations (particularly for Indigenous communities which lack the resources to do the work in an expedited manner), and gives a whole lot of power to individual ministers to approve projects with fewer safeguards, which is ripe for abuse and corruption. None of this is good or positive, in spite of the whinging of certain industry executives because they simply don’t want to put in the work. Everything just feels like we’re going backward, and we’re back to “pollution is fine because we’re in a trade war,” as if there aren’t long-term costs and consequences.

Meanwhile, Richard Warnica of the Star went to Alberta and spent time with the separatists, and it’s a swamp of conspiracy theories and fabrications (which he performatively fact-checked a bunch of, and lo, it’s all false. All of it). It’s an absolutely disturbing read, but it also skirts some of the underlying issues—that this is a movement that is steeped in white and Christian nationalism (and these people were deliberately marginalised back in the seventies and eighties by the Lougheed and Getty governments), that has festered in a poisoned information ecosystem and a political ecosystem that has relied on scapegoating Ottawa for the past five decades rather than dealing with the reality of their situation (they’re price-takers for oil, and the fact that they’re a virtual one-party state has invited all manner of corruption in their system). So no, any regulatory changes that Mark Carney might push through won’t mollify them. Another pipeline will make no difference—the last one didn’t, and the province absolutely reneged on the “grand bargain” it was supposed to represent. This is a quasi-cult whose brains have rotted on social media and Fox News, and simply giving them everything they say they want won’t actually solve any problems. It will likely just make things even worse.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-08T19:08:04.965Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A three-day ceasefire and 1000 prisoner exchange has apparently been agreed to, while Russia plans a scaled-back Victory Day parade (because they have no tanks left and they are paranoid Ukraine will attack). Ukraine is running short of air defence missiles after the massive assault over the winter.

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QP: Taunts about a Conservative-Liberal merger

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The PM was meeting with Princess Margriet of the Netherlands, while Pierre Poilievre was also absent from QP yet again. That left Carol Anstey to lead off, going full Karen, as she listed the things she wanted to speak to the manager about, like gas prices and the gun buyback. Steven MacKinnon got up to say he still hasn’t received a list from the Conservatives on things they would cut. Anstey cited consultants and the gun buyback as cuts, And again demanded gas taxes be cut. This time Wayne Long got up to deploy his line about being “laser-focused.” The very masculine Jacob Mantle got up to quote the CEO of Cenovus for claiming that carbon prices have driven projects out of Canada. Tim Hodgson said that he should listen to the CEO of Shell, who praised developments in Canada. Hodgson demanded a pipeline today, and Hodgson listed those which got approved, along with other projects. Gabriel Hardy quoted a Fraser Institute study on youth unemployment, to which Joël Lightbound pointed to the training funds for skilled trades in the spring economic update. Hardy then groused that the Major Project Office has not approved any project before bellyaching about taxes, and jammed in a reference to the “national credit card.” MacKinnon repeated the points about skilled trades, and noted Conservative opposition to projects like Alto.

Christine Normandin got up to raise the story about the government fast-Tracking more oil projects, and wondered how any environmentalists could be left in that party. Julie Dabrusin pointed to their methane regulations and insisted the government was showing leadership. Normandin taunted that the Conservatives must be itching to cross the floor as a result of the Liberal love for oil, to which Dabrusin wanted to assure the House that they were putting in the work on the environment. Mario Simard took over to continue the taunts about the environment, and this time MacKinnon got up to say that major energy projects can transform an economy, which included conventional energy. 

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Roundup: Taking what advice on appointments?

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Prime minister Mark Carney once again said on Wednesday that Senate appointments will be made “in due course,” which doesn’t help when nearly ten percent of the Chamber’s seats are vacant or will be before summer is out, but for the first time, he indicated that he would be preserving the independent appointment committees. Sort of. (Currently only the federal members of these committees remain in place, and those for Nova Scotia, but none of the other provinces). “I will take into account the advice of the independent advisory committee that was established by my predecessor,” was what Carney said.

The problem is that’s not actually saying anything. Taking advice into account? Either these committees will be providing short-lists for appointments that Carney will choose from, or they won’t be. That was the point—they took the applications (which was always a mistake—they should have been doing the searching for worthwhile nominees to tap on the shoulder), vetted them, and honed them down to the short-lists, which Trudeau would then choose from, because he remains constitutionally responsible for those appointments. But what “advice” are they supposed to be offering if not a short-list of candidates? Will he look at their list and then decide to choose one of his friends from another hedge fund or big bank? Will he give them a list to do due diligence on? Maybe. None of this is clear, and it looks like he either doesn’t understand this responsibility that is part of his office, or he doesn’t care, and I’m not sure which is worse at this point when he’s been in office for a year now.

Meanwhile, Carney also said that he’s waiting on the joint parliamentary committee report before coming to any decision on the MAiD expansion for irremediable mental health issues, but it cannot be understated that said committee has been an absolute sham process. The two co-chairs are hostile to MAiD and have stacked the witnesses to be overwhelmingly against it, and have sidelined groups like major national psychological and psychiatric organisations who might actually argue that they can provide adequate safeguards. This is just going to result in more Charter litigation, and so many people will continue to suffer needlessly because a bunch of MPs and senators were too squeamish to actually listen to evidence that they didn’t want to hear.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-06T19:08:02.023Z

Ukraine Dispatch

In spite of Ukraine giving Russia an early start to their Victory Day ceasefire, Russia attacked several cities in eastern Ukraine, killing at least 27 people. The new Hungarian government returned to Ukraine the confiscated $82 million USD in cash and gold that was seized while transiting the country.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/2051983745297617183

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QP: Justin Trudeau with a better LinkedIn account?

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The PM was off to Mirabel for an aerospace announcement, while back in the House of Commons, Pierre Poilievre was absent, leaving it to Sandra Cobena to lead off, complaining about the deficit as a way to demand the government cut all gas taxes. Wayne Long got up to recite the growth rates and the fact that wages are outpacing inflation. Cobena listed supposed scandals, before demanding the gas tax cut again. Steven MacKinnon got up to demand a list of programmes the Conservatives want got cut which they consider “inflationary spending.” Andrew Lawton took over to list more examples of supposed waste, and MacKinnon congratulated him on the number of empty slogans in a single question. Lawton retorted on the record of hot air from a transport minister, and tried the same again with some emphasis on their mocking the space launch facility lease. David McGuinty took this one, and he praised sovereign space launch capabilities. Dominique Vien took over in French to raise the issue of costs of food on the prime minister’s plane, and McGuinty turned this around that when talking about planes, the prime minister was in Mirabel to announce the largest aerospace order in Canadian history. Vien demanded gas taxes cuts, to which Joël Lightbound listed tax cuts they have already made, along with other benefit programmes, and the trade surplus recorded in March.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she demanded a wage subsidy for firms affected by the new U.S. tariffs, and MacKinnon reminded her of the supports they announced this week before patting himself on the back for the record airplane order again. Normandin was not satisfied, and again demanded a wage subsidy, and MacKinnon repeated the same response, and added that the Bloc should have offered congratulations for the order. Gabriel Ste-Marie took over to ask the same again, and Lightbound repeated that they are always there to support workers.

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QP: Unsuccessfully trying to goad the PM

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Fresh from his trip to Armenia and his announcement of Louise Arbour as the next Governor General, the PM was present for QP today. Pierre Poilievre also showed up, and he led off in French, and he immediately started taking swipes at the immigration minister, and demanded that the prime minister fire her. Mark Carney ignored the question, and praised Arbour as the next GG in French. Poilievre raised the visa for the Iranian official who got on a plane to Canada, and again demanded he fire her. Carney stated that Iranian officials are not allowed in Canada, and that they are taking steps to ensure it doesn’t happen. Poilievre repeated the question/demand in English, and Carney repeated his same answer in English, before reciting his Farge-esque line about taking back control of the immigration system. Poilievre listed a bunch of misleading statistics about Iranian officials already in Canada, and again demanded the firing, and Carney rattled off the number of investigations, cancelled visas, and removals. Poilievre then switched to the Cowichan decision, recited some misleading nonsense, and claimed the government wasn’t defending homeowners. Carney said that they respect private property rights, which is why they appealed the decision, and then noted that it was Red Dress day. Poilievre claimed this was just an illusion, and cited the government’s litigation directives on Indigenous rights, and again claimed the government was not defending rights. Carney hit back that the only illusion was whether this makeover of Poilievre’s would work more than his previous attempts, and then repeated his same response. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and demanded to know why the government wasn’t not implementing wage subsidies for businesses in peril from tariffs. Carney said that he wanted to thank the member across the way for his support for the new measures announced. Blanchet was not satisfied, and tried again. Carney pointed out that the new measures will flow immediately, and it also goes to small businesses. Blanchet was still not mollified, and said that these small businesses could not go deeper into debt and demanded a wage subsidy again. Carney responded with praise from Quebec business groups for the new support measures. 

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QP: On what date remains a terrible question

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The PM was wrapping up his meetings in Armenia and preparing to head home, while Pierre Poilievre was also away. That left it up to Melissa Lantsman to lead off, with the usual lines about “credit card” spending, and costs. Wayne Long stood up to praise the government’s efforts. Lantsman repeated the script with added disdain, and Evan Solomon took this one, to raise the trade war, and wondered what the Conservatives would cut. Tim Uppal took over and demanded to know when a pipeline would start construction. Mélanie Joly also pointed that there was a trade war going on. Uppal tried again, and Tim Hodgson suggested they spend time talking to proponents instead of just getting social media clips. Luc Berthold took over and read the “credit card” lines in French, and Joly repeated that we are in a trade war. Berthold ranted some absolute nonsense about “printing debt,” and Joly suggested he take a math lesson and recited the talking points about our position in the G7.

Oral questions. Questions orales. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-04T18:19:17.092Z

Lantsman blames high gas prices on government spending. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-04T18:20:58.026Z

Joly: We are in a trade war. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-04T18:24:39.790Z

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she called the government’s tariff support announcement this morning to be insufficient, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses. Joly praised the terms they are offering for the loans to help those firms. Normandin said that while the Bloc will cooperate with this measures, they government needs to do more, especially with a wage subsidy. Joly said that they will do more, because the government stands with the industry. Gabriel Ste-Marie gave his own question on the increased tariffs, and demanded more immediate support. Dominic LeBlanc said that he was touch with industry stakeholders. 

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