Tag Archives: Trade

Roundup: Making Canada work…by inventing grievances

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Paul Wells had a lengthy interview with Danielle Smith yesterday, and let me tell you, it is just exhausting to wade through the volume of bullshit that she is flooding it with. Lots of numbers that she has pulled out of her ass, tonnes of scapegoating, revisionist history, and so, so many strawmen that she keeps fighting in order to make Alberta look like the victim. Much of what Wells had to ask her about was her plans with those nine referendums, and the possibility of at least a couple of more questions in addition, but he never really challenged her on the fundamental basis of what she was doing.

Re: Danielle Smith

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-03-06T05:26:00.334Z

Referendums are a way for governments to bypass parliament or the legislature, and to manufacture consent for whatever issue they’re putting forward. They control the questions and the interpretation of the answers, so they manipulate the process from start to finish. Most of the time that works out for them, because they can successfully manipulate it to suit their purposes, but sometimes it gets away from them, such as Brexit, and a giant clusterfuck was created because David Cameron was too chickenshit to stand up to the xenophobes in his own party. In this particular case, Danielle Smith is looking to manufacture consent to both engage in further scapegoating of immigrants and asylum seekers (and believe me, there is a portion of the Alberta population who will take the permission that she has granted to them and target those newcomers), but to also manufacture consent for her to continue to engage in grievance-mongering to the detriment of everyone, in Alberta or in Canada.

Smith keeps insisting that she’s trying to make people confident that Canada can work, but it’s really hard to believe her when she keeps inventing new grievances to be mad about, and then engages in an effort to make everyone else mad about them (such as through these referendum questions) even though there is no actual basis for these grievances. And being a crybaby because your preferred party didn’t win the federal election is not a legitimate grievance, and should not be ginned up as one. That said, Alberta has largely been a one-party state for more than 40 years, so it’s hard for them to understand what it’s like to actually lose an election and not consider it illegitimate. And what is most frustrating is that precious few people actually call Smith (or her predecessors) out for inventing these grievances. It’s bullshit, and it needs to be called out as such, particularly from Albertans because being force-fed these fake grievances has done a number on their psyche, and it hurts all of us as a result.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-06T23:56:01.450Z

Ukraine Dispatch

President Zelenskyy visited the eastern front lines, as the second day or prisoner exchanges concluded with a total of 500 swapped over both days.

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Roundup: Oil sands histrionics, Jackpine edition

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Oil and gas company Canadian Natural Resources Limited is deferring an expansion to one of their oilsands mines, citing uncertainty until the federal government finalises their environmental policies, which naturally led the Conservatives to theatrically start going into histrionics. The problem, of course, is that the facts don’t exactly line up with this kind of outsized reaction. These mines have not really been subjected to carbon pricing and have, in fact, generated carbon credits for the company that they can sell at a profit (thanks to Alberta’s absurdly generous carbon credit system that undermines the effect of more stringent carbon pricing). And their talk about sequestering emissions misses the point.

As always, Andrew Leach is here to explain.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2029702579563925736

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2029703932369584402

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2029700820573532644

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2029705629942857807

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2029759527567114438

I noticed that in some of the replies, it was stated that CNRL’s owner is trying to leverage this for more corporate welfare, which would not surprise me in the least.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-05T22:27:01.603Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone damaged a civilian ship carrying corn from the port of Odesa. Repair crews have restored power to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, necessary for its cooling operations. Russia and Ukraine have swapped 200 prisoners of war, out of a planned 500 each. Ukraine’s new F-16 fighter jets have been starved of American-made missiles for more than three weeks, limiting their ability to shoot down missiles and drones.

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Roundup: We are one (murderous) family

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From New Delhi, Mark Carney had his big meeting with Narendra Modi, and they announced their plans on a comprehensive trade agreement by the end of the year, along with a number of other trade plans, including a uranium agreement. Carney even said that “We are one family” with Modi, erm, except Modi’s government has very likely murdered Canadians on Canadian soil, which is a pretty strange definition of “family.” But then Carney refused to take media questions, cancelled a planned press conference, citing the need to get into the air to avoid the flight crew’s scheduling regulations, and apparently decided that he couldn’t scrum on the plane either, meaning that all of those media outlets who shelled out thousands of dollars to be there are being given nothing for the time and trouble. This is turning into a habit for Carney, as is the fact that at least one of his meetings was found out by social media and wasn’t on his itinerary.

Pretty much.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-03-02T15:19:39.900Z

Meanwhile, Anita Anand had to pick up the media slack, but even then, she refused to say whether she believes the attack on Iran violated international law, and only will say that Canada is not militarily involved, though she also says she wants to see a “diplomatic solution.” Other members of the government has also been backtracking on the assertion that India stopped engaging in foreign interference and repression, including secretary of state for combatting crime, Ruby Sahota, which makes it look an awful lot like that senior official was set up to try and deflect questions on the interference ahead of the trip (which backfired spectacularly because we could all tell that it was bullshit).

Meanwhile, while in London, Pierre Poilievre expounded on his idea of a critical mineral stockpile available to allies with tariff-free trade agreements (but again, I fail to see how this will change Trump’s mind). He is also getting all hot and bothered by the impact that the Iran conflict is having on the oil market, but it’s making him say dumb things about Canada trying to step in and displace that Middle Eastern oil and gas. It’s never going to happen, and none of what he’s saying is true, but nobody’s going to challenge him on it (other than Andrew Leach).

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2028513969766560215

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2028517629439414642

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-02T23:08:01.907Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine’s military continues to make gains reclaiming territory in Zaporizhzhia region, while a naval drone attack his the Russian oil terminal at Sheskharis, suspending operations. President Zelenskyy says that Russia won’t be able to fulfil its short-term goals in the invasion.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/2028512953016733884

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Roundup: Davos speech vs Iran support

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In the early hours of Saturday morning, the Americans and Israelis stuck Iran under dubious pretences—later confirming that nuclear talks were merely a ruse, and that Trump and Netanyahu had been planning this for weeks—and managed to effectively decapitate the country’s leadership, including killing Ayatollah Khomeini. Within hours, prime minister Mark Carney sent out a statement from his trip in Mumbai, where he effectively supported the actions, but also did not promise any Canadian support, military or otherwise. Nevertheless, everyone went on a big round of hand-wringing about how this statement jived with his big Davos speech.

My statement on Iran-related hostilities in the Middle East:

— Mark Carney (@mark-carney.bsky.social) 2026-02-28T12:31:32.929Z

It's not small-dick energy.It's smallest dick energy.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-28T19:10:15.695Z

Of course, the thing about the Davos speech is that it was a bit of a Rorschach test, depending on one’s priors. Sure, Carney talked about sovereignty and territorial integrity, but he also made it clear that the existing system of international law was a mirage, so he was kind of saying that it didn’t matter? In either case, I don’t think we should expect anything other than “pragmatism” without much in the way of principle, because that is the tone Carney has been setting for a while now, which could eventually work to our detriment.

People keep saying that this goes against the Davis speech. It does not. Carney said the rules based international order was always hypocritical, is now dead, and we live in a time of rupture. I disagree with support but this is not against what he said. The sign is gone. GONE GONE.

— Stephanie Carvin (@stephaniecarvin.bsky.social) 2026-02-28T14:54:02.726Z

In Davos, Carney argued that only countries w/ strong economies could afford “principled” foreign policies. Carney’s pro-US, pro-illegal war statement is that idea in action.The thing is, this view is both self-serving and wrong. Wrong because there is always a cost to standing up for principles.

— Blayne Haggart (@bhaggart.bsky.social) 2026-02-28T14:14:37.709Z

But if you always subordinate principles (i.e., non-economic interests like international law) to economic growth, you’ll never stand for anything. ESPECIALLY Canada, since the best we can hope for is only sending HALF of our exports to the US. They will ALWAYS have leverage over us.

— Blayne Haggart (@bhaggart.bsky.social) 2026-02-28T14:14:37.711Z

In reaction, Bob Rae wonders what happens after the military operation ends, which has long been the question for those who want to attack Iran. Anne Applebaum lays out the fact that Trump has no plans for what to do next with Iran, and has already dismantled programmes which might have helped, which is a huge danger of creating something worse. Justin Ling wonders why Carney chose the route he did of cheering on such a dangerous gambit.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-28T22:10:01.821Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Zelenskyy’s chief of staff says that Russia has accepted the proposal for post-war security guarantees (which…means not much).

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Roundup: Poilievre’s big foreign trip

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As Pierre Poilievre heads to London and Berlin for his first actual foreign trips as opposition leader, his office released his itinerary, which includes attending a CANZUK reception in London after meeting with parliamentarians and business leaders, and then delivering a keynotes speech in Berlin, along with meeting with officials and business leaders and touring an LNG facility.

And there’s the rub. This is going to turn into another tedious exercise of Poilievre doing a little song and dance about “Look! Europe wants our oil and gas!” when really, European leaders, after much badgering and hectoring, actually said something like “Sure, we’d like it if it was available and the right price,” neither of which is going to happen. We’ve seen this before. Certain political show hosts in our country like to engage in this very same badgering and hectoring whenever they interview a visiting European leader in order to say “Look! There’s a business case! Trudeau was wrong!” But they ignored the caveats and the economics.

The reason why LNG to Europe is never going to happen include:

  1. There is no local supply of natural gas on the east coast, so most of the feed stock would be imported from the US, raising prices locally, and if you think a cross-country pipeline is feasible, that will also increase prices in the east coast;
  2. It would take years to build an export facility, and it would take years to convert the one existing import terminal (which serves not only the local market, but also feeds into the northeastern US market);
  3. Even if these facilities existed, there has been no interest by European buyers in signing a long-term contract, which is one of the reasons why proposals for east coast LNG terminals never got off the ground. Also remember that these facilities essentially need to operate for a good thirty or forty years to make their money’s worth, and Europe is already rapidly decarbonizing.

Of course, Poilievre will ignore all of that, and declare that Europe wants our LNG, and we’ll go through this whole exercise yet again. It’s so tiresome that nobody actually wants to listen to reality on this subject.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-27T23:56:01.183Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia says a temporary ceasefire has been reached around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in order to ensure repairs. Ukraine is setting up a joint venture with allies to produce more air defence ammunition.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/2027352819905249375

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Roundup: Damage control over India’s foreign interference

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Consider it an own-goal, as the government spent the day doing damage control over the statement by that unnamed senior official who declared that India was no longer engaged in foreign interference or transnational repression. Out of the gate first was Liberal backbench MP Sukh Dhaliwal, who condemned that official and questioned his suitability for the role.

This seems…unlikely, especially in light of reporting a few days ago that another Sikh activist had been warned of a credible threat to life. Either the government is naively believing India, or it is misleading Canadians with this statement. globalnews.ca/news/1170676…

— Jess Davis (@jessmarindavis.bsky.social) 2026-02-26T11:27:33.313Z

As the day progressed, more ministers needed to get involved. Gary Anandasangaree had to come out and say that no, they remain concerned about security issues, while Anita Anand went on TV to very carefully parse what that official said, and insist that they have an ongoing dialogue with the Indian government and that they are working toward dealing with these issues, and tried to very carefully walk the line of doing the whole “Everything’s fine!” line that Carney seems to be demanding as he departed for the trip, and trying to also let the Sikh community know that their concerns are being heard, but not really succeeding at that because their spokespeople were also on the political shows to talk about how they’re feeling like they’re being gaslit.

Honestly, this whole thing feels like another case of ineptitude at the highest levels of Carney’s government. He’s so quick to try and tout these trade deals and “strategic partnerships” that he both ignores real optics questions, and dismisses the concerns about things like, oh, human rights, or international obligations, or anything like that, and keeps bringing it back to his whole CEO shtick, which is frankly not a good look for a government. Things like rights and international law matters, and if Carney is going to keep sweeping this under the rug in order to get his hands on the dollars on offer, it shows those “Value(s)” he wrote a book about to be pretty hollow.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-26T22:27:01.610Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 420 drones and 39 missiles in the early hours of Thursday morning, injuring at least 26 people. It also appears that Russia has employed nuclear-capable cruise missiles as part of their recent attacks.

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Roundup: Stopping because we asked nicely?

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Prime minister Mark Carney departs for India today on the first leg of his major trade trip, and as pretty much as he’s out the door, senior officials giving a background briefing to reporters says that they believe that India is no longer engaging in transnational repression, otherwise they wouldn’t be on the trip. That…defies credulity. And the logic of not going on the trip if they were engaged in the repression doesn’t hold given that Carney was just in China two weeks ago, and lo, they haven’t stopped their own efforts around interference or repression.

Foreign interference from India, including transnational repression, has been going on in Canada since the 1980s. It did not stop last week. You can agree that stabilization of relations is important with India is important, while not believing this BS. www.thestar.com/politics/fed…

— Stephanie Carvin (@stephaniecarvin.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T23:42:11.723Z

“I really don’t think we’d be taking this trip if we thought these kinds of activities were continuing,” a senior government official said. lol ok so by that logic I guess that means China no longer interferes in our democracy either since the govt took a trip there

— Supriya Dwivedi (@supriya.bsky.social) 2026-02-26T00:35:08.800Z

We just had a whole-ass judicial inquiry that found that India was the number two country, following China, engaging in foreign interference and transnational repression in this country. It’s been happening since the 1980s, and we’re supposed to believe that they just folded up shop and went home because we asked nicely? Really? Just this week, more Sikh activists in Vancouver were warned by police that they and their families are being targeted. Are we supposed to believe that this is just a figment of their imaginations?

The worst part of this is that it’s just insulting to everyone’s intelligence. It’s transparently untrue, and it’s done to shut up the reporters who keep asking about the state of the relationship. There were so many better ways he could have answered this, including talking about how they have made progress with dialogue with Indian officials, or that they have police cooperation, or anything, but just saying “they stopped,” because apparently we asked nicely, is not going to cut it, and Carney is misjudging the public on this one yet again.

Ukraine Dispatch

There were overnight attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv. Ukraine’s defence minister says they plan to have 4000 kilometres of road protected by anti-drone netting by the end of the year. It is estimated that some 1700 Africans are fighting for Russia, mostly having been tricked into doing so.

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Roundup: Not bothering to amend an abusive bill

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It looks like the Senate’s national security committee has decided not to amend Bill C-12 (which is a border bill that was split out of Bill C-2), and in particular left in the sections that give the immigration minister new arbitrary powers when it comes to asylum claims and immigration files that she will soon be able to cancel any application she likes. The Senate’s social affairs committee had recommended removing this section from the bill because these powers can be exercised with no procedural safeguards, but apparently, they don’t care.

Among other complains in this legislation are the timelines for when people can make a refugee claim since they’ve been in the country, which can be fraught for some claimants who have been traumatized or who are afraid that disclosing certain reasons why they are claiming (particularly in instances of domestic violence or persecution for being LGBTQ+) could mean more time, but attempts to change that timeline were shot down. The changes also have the likelihood of creating a two-tier system that won’t guarantee in-person hearings for vulnerable claimants, but apparently that doesn’t matter. And when it comes to cancelling immigration applications or even permanent residency cards because of “public interest,” which the minister can simply declare arbitrarily, well, they decided not to narrow those powers either.

There is some spectacularly bad and frankly abusive legislation that this government is pushing forward, and the Senate should be doing its job and pushing back, especially in cases like this, where the government is trying to give itself arbitrary powers with no guardrails. This is a bad thing, but apparently, we have a bunch of timid senators who don’t want to rock the boat too much. Wasn’t that why everyone was so busy patting themselves on the back for the “independent” Senate, where they weren’t being whipped (not that the whip has been anything but illusory in the Senate), so that they could actually push back against the government? If this is “independence” or “pushing back” against bad legislation, well, I’d hate to see what a pliant Senate looks like.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-23T14:08:03.542Z

Ukraine Dispatch

There was an explosion in Mykolaiv, similar to the bombing in Lviv. Ukrainian forces have reclaimed eight settlements in a counter-offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Here is a compilation of stats on the toll that four years of war has had on Ukraine, while here is a look at how costly this has been in Russian lives. AP has a photo essay featuring several people affected by the war, and a gallery of some of the images over the past four years.

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Roundup: Our useless minister of digital asbestos

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In the wake of the Tumbler Ridge shooting, we have learned that OpenAI had suspended the shooter’s account but decided not to alert the RCMP about the fact that they had breached the guidelines meant to prevent violence, and didn’t reach out until days after the shooting occurred.

Enter Evan Solomon, our minister of digital asbestos, who released a statement late afternoon Saturday, that demonstrated his utter uselessness.

Evan Solomon’s useless statement on OpenAI not alerting police about the Tumbler Ridge shooter. What an absolute waste of space at the Cabinet table.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-21T21:51:49.274Z

“All options are on the table”? Bullshit. Solomon has stated time and again that he decided to move away from a safety-first regulatory approach to digital asbestos, to a “light touch” because the tech bros convinced him and Mark Carney that any regulation is going to “stifle innovation,” and they certainly wouldn’t want to do that. Meanwhile, the number of people spiralling into psychosis using these chatbots are increasing dramatically, we had indications that a mass shooter triggered the protocols on this particular chatbot but the company didn’t do anything about it, and we really believe that Solomon is going to what? Block them from operating in Canada? Fine them a paltry sum? What? The truth is he won’t, and we know why. He’s guzzled the hype, as has his boss, and neither of them can be told anything different, even in the face of fact after fact showing that the creators of this technology are the dumbest manbabies alive, that the technology is corrosive to the environment and to the cognitive abilities of the next generation, but hey, we wouldn’t want to “stifle innovation.” Come on. Do your job and ensure that Canadians are actually being protected from this rather than just being complicit.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia inflicted a missile and drone attack on a Kyiv suburb over the weekend, as well as on energy infrastructure around Odesa. As well, several bombs exploded in Lviv on Sunday, which are also being blamed on Russia. The Star follows one family who has been shattered by the war over the past four years.

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Roundup: The tariffs are dead, long live the tariffs

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Yesterday, the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs in a 6-3 decision, because tariffs are taxes and taxes need to come from Congress. These were the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, the fentanyl tariffs, and the “Liberation Day” tariffs, but not the Section 232 sectoral tariffs on things like steel and aluminium and autos. This means that the effect on Canada is very minimal because for those IEEPA tariffs, we had the New NAFTA exemptions on something like 85 percent of tariffed goods. (Five Things to know about this ruling here, and the list of remaining tariffs on Canada here).

Almost immediately, Trump implemented new global ten percent tariffs under a different set of powers, meaning that this whole process gets to start over again with a new legal challenge, but these powers have a 150-day expiry date, so how does that even work? Meanwhile, companies who paid those IEEPA tariffs can apparently apply for refunds, but I have a suspicion they will never see that money, because Trump will drag it out, his courts are corrupt, and well, the money will have disappeared into some Trump lackey’s accounts, because the graft is real.

https://bsky.app/profile/jrobson.bsky.social/post/3mfdo7xcbw227

https://bsky.app/profile/jrobson.bsky.social/post/3mfdovg5ius27

What problem is Trump's new global 10% tariff meant to solve?If it's about leverage, ask: How much leverage do you get from a tariff that disappears in 150 days?If it's onshoring: Who builds new factories based on tariff that disappear before the factory is built?It's a tax. That's all it is.

— Justin Wolfers (@justinwolfers.bsky.social) 2026-02-20T20:00:44.062Z

Meanwhile, this has largely served as vindication for the fact that we didn’t rush to get a deal with Trump over tariffs, because there was no deal to be had, and because those tariffs were illegal. Why come up with a deal over something that’s illegal and immoral? Why do what Keir Starmer did when capitulation just emboldens a bully?

Statement from Dominic LeBlanc:

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-20T16:06:42.548Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-20T23:56:01.759Z

Ukraine Dispatch

As the war enters into its fifth year, here is a look at some of the displaced civilians from the war who has lost everything. Europe’s five biggest defence powers are launching a project to develop and build low-cost air defences that can be put into production within a year.

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